Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Not Enough Radicals

The latest polling:
A new poll from Quinnipiac University found that half — 50 percent — of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters want a candidate who supports major changes across the board — even if those policies are harder to pass into law. A slightly smaller margin — 42 percent — preferred a Democratic nominee that backs minor changes, easier to pass into law. This trend also translates into specific policies, like Medicare-for-all; 49 percent of Democratic voters favor replacing the current private health insurance system with a public system, compared to 44 percent who support building on the Affordable Care Act. The poll has a 3.2 point margin of error.
About 45% of Americans are "Democrats or lean Democratic," or at any rate that is close enough for our purposes. That means that only 23% of Americans favor the sort of "major changes across the board" likely to be put forward by a Democratic president. Heck, let's be generous and give them a third of non Democrats for certain measures; that still only gets them to 41%. Which is just not enough to carry through radical changes.

So long as radicals are only a quarter or less of the population, they are doomed to frustration.

1 comment:

Shadow said...

A little late, but Trump won 46.1 % of the vote, more than the overly generous offer of 41% you give radicals. He was not only radical but a bully, yet he won. I think what you aren't accounting for is how much a passionate candidate (even and ugly one) can move an electorate that is disgusted with the status quo and distrusts the other side. Also, 3rd party candidates make a difference.

Watch out for Warren.