Russian donkey carrying a drone jammer
I haven't posted much about the Ukraine war here lately, because it seemed like all the important action was in Washington. But the war has raged on, and I have spent several hours this week catching up.
First, the tone of the top Ukrainian posters is upbeat and defiant. They say, and western governments generally agree, that Russia suffered its worst losses of the war in 2024 for its smallest gains, and that so far in 2025 the trend has continued. The comic book evil of some Russian actions – for example, drone operators hunting random civilians in the city of Kherson – has only fed Ukrainian determination, and that of their European friends. I have seen no signs of fear or even nervousness about what Russia might achieve. It is widely asserted that Russia keeps making outrageous demands in peace talks because they have no chance of achieving those goals on the battlefield. (For example, control of all of Kherson.) I have seen several posts saying some version of, "For the defending side to win a war, all they have to do is keep defending." Ukrainian bloggers widely shared a Forbes estimate that at current rates of advance it would take Russia several centuries and tens of millions of casualties to conquer Ukraine. Ukrainians believe they can keep defending for years, with or without US help.

Ukraine set a goal of manufacturing one million military drones in 2024, and exceeded that target by November. Their goal for 2025 is 4.5 million. This is mostly cheap quadcopters but it includes new variants with ranges of more than a 800 miles and warheads weighing up to 250 pounds. They have also launched a massive program for drones controlled by fiber optic lines with ranges of
up to 30 km. Operators fly these fiber optic drones
into buildings and underground bunkers before detonating them. Ukrainian drones recent
clobbered a large Russian ammunition storage facility near Moscow (51st GRAU Arsenal), leading to massive explosions that went on for hours and the evacuation of four nearby villages (above). Ukrainians pass around photographs of these ammunition dump explosions to use as backgrounds on their phones. On May 1 there was a
massive drone attack on Russian air defense installations across Crimea, with
video showing several hits on radars. Attacks on airbases are routine, focusing on fuel and weapons storage structures, steadily degrading Russia's ability to keep planes in the air.
Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed, and Osint folks have confirmed, that a Ukrainian drone boat shot down a Russian Su-30 fighter-bomber with repurposed air to air missiles. (
Newsweek,
Twitter/X ) Russia had found that the best defense against drone boats was aircraft, especially helicopters, so boats that can shoot back at aircraft are a major problem for them. When you consider that Ukraine launched its first drone boat attack less than two years ago, this is astonishing progress. Plus, aircraft losses matter. Russia has been very conservative in using its air force because they simply do not have that many good planes or combat-ready pilots and cannot easily summon up hundreds more. So they are now facing a dilemma: whether to risk valuable aircraft and pilots protecting their fleet, or risk losing more ships to drone boat attacks.
Ukraine has also released video of new drone boats that carry aerial drones.
The vast array of drones makes the battlefield increasingly deadly. Russia has continued to make some mechanized assaults, but they generally fail, and half the armor is knocked out by drones before it has advanced half a mile. So most Russian attacks are now made by infantry, either on foot or mounted on dunebuggies, atvs, and small motorcycles. Ukraine has reponded to this tactic by stringing hundreds of miles of barbed wire all along the front. Wire isn't much use against tanks, but it is deadly to men on motorcycles. Incidentally, both sides now generally use land drones to lay both barbed wire and minefields.
The guys who count equipment losses in the war are still at it. The lastest update on Russian equipment losses shows at least 100 more tanks and 300 other armored vehicles destroyed in April, bringing the total losses to 3947 tanks and 8550 other armored vehicles, plus 139 jet aircraft, 155 helicopters, 322 SAM systems, more than 2,000 artillery pieces, etc., to a total of more than 21,000 systems. People who study Russia's vast array of military equipment storage bases say that almost all the good armored vehicles have already been withdrawn for refurbishment, and that what remains is increasingly outdated and rusted out. Those old vehicle hulls are still useful, but the cost of making them combat ready is rising, and the end result is probably less effective. Russia is not "running out" of armored vehicles, since they continue to manufacture hundreds every year, but they really are facing a shortage and this shows up in their pathetic offensive progress.
At least 5921 Russian officers have been killed in the war, based on memorials and funeral announcements. Mediazona and the BBC have counted 106,745 Russian dead overall and estimate the actual total is 164,000 to 237,000. The higher figure is about how many Americans died in Europe during World War II. Russia is a nation of 144 million, with 800,000 Russian boys turning 18 every year, so they can obviously endure such losses, especially since many of the men in the assault squads are older volunteers and quite a few are criminals. Still, these losses hurt. Plus, on paper Russia has a fairly generous system for taking care of elderly combat veterans and especially disabled veterans, and that is going to impose huge costs going forward.
The Trump administration's attempts to broker a cease-fire foundered on Russian intransigience, although, to be fair, the Ukrainians were probably only pretending to go along because they knew Russia would balk; they don't want a cease-fire either.
So the tragedy goes on, with Russia's losses mounting and Ukrainian resolve unshaken, no end in sight, Russia unable to give up but equally unable to win.