Friday, May 13, 2011

Will Israel Attack Iran?

Last year people I respect were worrying that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities was imminent, but now I am seeing reports everywhere that suggest there will be no attack. Among the reasons given:
  • Political turmoil in the Arab world is a complicating factor;
  • the Iranian government is in trouble with its own citizens and internally divided;
  • the new Israeli anti-missile systems, such as Iron Dome, are working better than expected;
  • the Iranian nuclear program is too decentralized for an attack to be very effective;
  • the Obama administration is adamantly opposed;
  • the Israeli government is itself divided, with several former heads of the army and Mossad publicly opposing a strike;former Mossad chief Meir Dagan called the plan to launch an air strike against Iran "the stupidest thing I have ever heard."
I think this falls into the category of good news.

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