Presentism

I am constantly amazed by the way the contemporary economic climate shapes people's views of the future. Consider: right now, less than half of Americans tell pollsters that they think their children will one day be better off then they are. I remember the same sort of doom-mongering in the late 70s, when there was talk of permanent energy shortages, the end of innovation, the collapse of the entrepreneurial spirit, the rise of Japan, and a population explosion leading to worldwide hunger. Somehow we managed to struggle on.

I don't say this to dismiss the challenges of our own time -- the decline of decently paid work for men without a college degree or technical skills seems particularly worrying to me, since it feeds into the problems of poor America. But the economic boom of the future is already taking shape around us. I think we are on the verge of huge payoffs from of genetic engineering, which will soon reach the point at which we can custom order microbes to do our dirty work. Improvements in computers and communications will continue. Alternative energy of various kinds will gradually supplant coal and oil, helped by big improvements in efficiency. The economic rise of China and India will continue, and much of Latin America looks set to join the first world, starting with Chile. This will spur world trade. Population growth will ease.

Of course we have problems; everybody has problems. But I see no sign that the rolling ball of constant technological improvement set in motion 300 years ago is about to stop, and it is technological change that is making us richer. Greater wealth won't necessarily make us happier or more free -- those are separate questions. But making money is something we have gotten very good at, and I don't see that changing any time soon.