Kevin Drum finds a study saying the decline in young adult mental health is caused by a decline in the unsupervised play of children and wants to believe it, but sadly there is no real evidence.
Bursting bonsai sculptures by Patrick Bergsma, quite clever.
What to do with decommissioned coal-fired power plants? Well, some of them are in valuable waterfront locations where it is financially feasible to clean up the toxic mess and redevelop the sites: NY Times article, and web sites (first, second, third) for three very different ongoing redevelopment projects. Many others, however, are just getting closed up to moulder.
Strange physics: monopoles and vortex rings. Or you could try this attempt at an explanation for non-physicists, but I didn't find that it explained anything at all.
Fascinating map on X showing that in the recent Polish elections, Law and Justice won most of the area that was part of Russia before WW I, while the opposition won the areas that were then part of Prussia and Austria. (Warsaw is the big exception.)
Long post by Zvi on fertility decline. One way you know it has nothing to do with money is that women who win the lottery do not have more children.
Fascinating Bronze Age jewelry found in Swiss field.
For the curious, an article explaining what is in Cornelius Agirppa's De Occulta Philosophia (1533).
The sad story of Delonte West, former NBA player who once earned $6 million a year but went crazy, got addicted, and ended up panhandling on the street. His friends tried to help him – Mark Cuban, billionaire owner of one of his former teams, paid to send him to an expensive rehab center run by another former NBA player – but nothing has helped and now none of his old friends knows where he is. The next time somebody tells you it would be easy to fix our homelessness problem with a little more money, remember West, who has had access to resources far beyond what any government could possibly provide to all the sufferers.
Ukraine Links
Detailed thread on one set of Russian fortifications near Robotyne.
Detailed post from RUSI laying out the evidence that North Korea is now supplying Russia with massive quantities of munitions, likely in exchange for help with missile and other high-tech weapons systems with which North Korea can make even more trouble.
German blogger Tendar says Russia's offensive at Avdiivka is a catastrophic waste of resources undertaken for reasons of Russian politics, nothing to do with military strategy.
Short video of a Ukrainian robot laying mines on roads near Russian positions.
On October 19, Russia renewed the attack on Avdiivka, with more losses. (video, video with map) Pondering this offensive I feel lilke it must have been ordered by someone staring a map many miles from the front, because on a map Avdiivka looks vulnerable to encirclement. But the soldiers at the front know it has been intensely fortified since 2014, with miles of tunnels and deep underground bunkers, the artillery having preset firing solutions for every possible approach, etc.
Reliable Ukrainian bloggers say the Russian losses at Avdiivka on October 19 were their worst of the war. Ukrainian MOD says the Russians lost more than 50 tanks and 100 other armored vehicles and more than 1,000 men, likely an exaggeration, but still. People are making comparisons to Germany's Ardennes offensive in December 1944 (the Bulge, to Americans) in that Russia is throwing its available resources into a futile attack rather than saving them for defense. More video here.
Commenting on the Avdiivka assaults, Russian journalist Sladkov says these attacks are pointless until Russia can secure air supremacy and use it to wreck Ukrainian artillery; without that, attacks are just throwing men away. Since as Sladkov knows Russia cannot get air supremacy, this is like saying all attacks are pointless. Best line by a Russian commentator: "if you can't break through a wall with your head, use it to think instead."
The count of Russian officers killed in Ukraine, confirmed by funeral notices and the like, has reached 3,000.
Ukrainian reconnaissance units crossed the Dnipro east of Kherson and appear to have taken control of two villages and destroyed Russian trucks on an important road. Summary here from the ISW; X posts here and here.
In their first use of ATACMS missiles on October 17, Ukraine attacked two Russian helicopter bases; battle damage assessment by OSINT guys suggests that 9 helos were destroyed and 11 badly damaged, by far the biggest one day loss of Russian aircraft since WW II.
Andrew Perpetua runs down the dozens of Russian bomb, missile, and artillery attacks on Urkainian civilians in a single day. Somebody on X recently, apropos of the claimed Israeli attack on a hospital in Gaza (which probably didn't happen), said "Imagine how loud people would be screaming if Russia attacked a hospital in Ukraine." But Ukraine has already reported to UN war crimes investigators *707* Russian attacks on Ukrainian hospitals, including one on a maternity hospital in which 40 people were killed. The degree to which people who are not paying attention imagine they know what is going on somtimes simply baffles me.























































