Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Collecting

Via Tyler Cowen, I just stumbled across a 1941 study that correlated children's hobbies with their measured IQs. The group with the lowest IQ was children with "no hobbies;" the groups with the highest IQs were those into "reading nonfiction" and "collecting." None of these effects were very large, with the average IQ for all groups falling between 97 and 105.

But anyway this gives me an excuse to ponder the phenomenon of "collecting," which I don't get and have never gotten. Why do so many smart people love to assemble sets of things?

I have occastionally collected little objects related to particular places and events that have been important in my own life. When I was at Knossos I swiped a potsherd from their discard pile, because Knossos was a major fascination of mine when I was about 13. I once had a a set of four dinosaur stamps, honoring my childhood fascination with paleontology; a sea urchin from Maine; shark's teeth from Florida; a broken flint pebble from England; and my name tag ("Bones Jones") from the goofy amateur movie I acted in. But these were all things connected to my life, and, here's the other thing, at the moment I couldn't tell you where most of them are. Physical objects have trouble holding my attention.

Even with books, the things I own by far the most of, I have an ambivalent relationship, and in recent years I have discarded hundreds.

I have thought from time to time that collecting something would be fun, and it would give me something else to think about. But there isn't anything that interests me enough, and I'm sure that if I ever started I would soon forget about it. 

So, anyway, collecting is just one of those things about human life I don't get, and when it trends into obsession, like 500 barbie dolls, or all the editions of Great Expectations, I find it to be a great mystery.

Monday, August 21, 2023

The Ring Nebula

Webb space telescope image, shot in visual and near infrared light, with false color. Huge, zoomable image here.


Tadashi Nakayama

Tadashi Nakayama (1927-2014) was a Japanese printmaker who explored various mixtures of traditional Japanese imagery and techniques with abstraction and also other global styles such as Persian and Byzantine. Above, Butterfly B, 1991.



Three prints from Nakayama's Incarnation series, 1958.

Nakayama is the only Japanese artist I know of who is obsessed with horses. Two Horses toward the Wind, 1987.

Five Galloping Horses, 1970

Untitled, 1968

Brandon Sanderson, "The Final Empire"

Who is the highest rated fantasy writer on Goodreads? Brandon Sanderson.

So, in my ongoing quest to remain up-to-date on the world of fantasy writing, I got a recorded version of his first book, The Final Empire, to listen to with my youngest son on a recent trip. After half an hour my son was so bored we turned it off.

So there's my first gripe, that after being told by all the agents that my book was too long and slow-moving, I discover that Brandon Sanderson got published despite his book being much longer than mine and having a dreary beginning.

But I forged on. It does get better, at least in one limited sense: there is a lot of entertaining action. Think John Wick or The Matrix, not LOTR. The magic system makes its practitioners into a combination of Spider Man and Wolverine, and they spend a lot of time flying around cities and dispatching evil minions by tricks like using telekinetic powers to turn coins into bullets. It's kind of fun, even exciting at times, but it is not the least bit magical, at least as I understand the word.

So that's my second gripe: The Final Empire does not do, at all, the thing that makes me love fantasy, taking me away to a world of mystery and wonder. Instead it takes us into a comic book.

And third: I have an ever-growing list of Things that Tick Me Off in Fantasy Writing, and Brandon Sanderson checks every single box.

To begin with, the bad guys are pointlessly, self-destructively bad. The Dark Lord – he is called the Lord Ruler, but we might as well just call him by his proper title – is really, really bad. He is so bad that under his reign, all the plants are brown. But making plants that survive without chlorophyll is not the limit of his prowess as a plant geneticist! He has also, somehow, eliminated flowers, even though the main thing the nobles of this world seem to eat is fruit. Fruit without flowers! Truly this man is an evil genius to be reckoned with.

Then there are the nobles, who are both puzzlingly irrelevent and just as pointlessly bad as the head bad guy. Most of them seem to live on plantations where the serfs are so oppressed they would make your heart ache if it weren't so ridiculous. First, they are always starving, which is a lousy way to treat your workers if you want anything done. Second, the attractive women among them are always being taken away by their lords for sexual purposes, but that isn't evil enough, no, because, see, the Dark Lord has a stringent rule against the creation of half-breeds, which means that all the women so used have to be killed. The nobles don't care that they routinely murder the healthiest females of their working population because the serfs somehow have a very high birth rate – up to twelve per woman, we hear – despite surviving on a calorically inadequate, nutritionally pathetic diet. Third, these people are so oppressed that they seem to have no culture at all; no music, no stories about clever rabbits outwitting wolves and lions, no local recipes for cheese, nothing at all except misery. Nobody suffers like they suffer.

The Final Empire has, we are told, a very impressive canal system along which most goods move, but I don't believe it because all the canal boats are pulled by teams of men. I mean, mules can do the same work at about a tenth of the cost, but that wouldn't be evil and oppressive enough.

But besides oppressing their poor serfs, the nobles don't do very much. The running of the empire seems to be mostly carried out by a caste of religious bureaucrats. The nobles spend their time trying to get rich off half-baked business schemes and inviting each other to balls. Business seems to be mainly transacted via deals between noble houses who are always worried that the other party is cheating them.

So I'm reading this and thinking, if I were a minor noble in this world I wouldn't have any trouble making my house the richest in the empire within a few years. First, I'm going to pull my canal boats with mules, which will allow me to massively undercut the prices of all my competitors. Using some of the profit from that radical scheme I'm going to set up an actual market where things can be traded and prices can find their natural level. I would think a one percent commission on this genius innovation would make my house the richest around in no time, and surely the other houses would pay this to escape from the constant fear of being cheated. I could even regulate the grain trade using, say, the provisions in the Code of Hammurabi, since the Mesopotamians somehow managed to invent regulated public markets at a technological level 4,000 years behind that of the Final Empire.

What is the technological level of the Final Empire? Glad you asked! Warfare is medieval, mostly done with swords and spears, and books are all hand-copied. But everything else seems taken from a random grab bag of European centuries. Besides the aforementioned canal system we have seventeenth-century political writing, eighteenth-century clothes, nineteenth-century ballroom dancing, limelight (invented in 1820), anarchist noblemen like certain Russians of the 1860s, and, of course, hidden somewhere offstage, the genetic labs where the Dark Lord develops marvelous innovations like flowerless fruit. The poor live in Timelessly Miserable Huts but the rich have private rooms with doors and other modern arrangements of space, so anyway after 1650. I know it is pedantic of me but this sort of guess-the-century historical miscellany plays havoc with my suspension of disbelief.

And who are our heroes? A gang of about a dozen thieves. Yes, in Brandon Sanderson's imagination, the people to overthrow this whole gigantic system of oppression (it takes months to travel across even the central districts of this empire) are a "crew" of swindlers who call their rebellion a "job."

They have a Plan, or Scheme, which is completely ridiculous under whatever name you want to give it. Imagine sending the Dirty Dozen to overthrow the Soviet Union. True, two of the dozen are Spider Man and Wolverine, but the Final Empire has dozens of supervillains who are their match, and the Dark Lord is at least rumored to be the greatest supervillain of them all.

And yet, protected by unbreachable plot armor, our band of heroes trundles on toward a Great Confrontation with the Dark Lord.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention that the Plan depends on some of these low-class thieves being able to impersonate nobles, this in a society where the distinction between the classes is at least as profound as any on earth, and they can learn to do this in two weeks. And during the two weeks when our cute irrepressible heroine is learning to act like a noble she is also learning to read. Within a month she is pounding her way through thick, thousand-year-old tomes of history.

Sigh.

So here, it seems, is the new formula for popular fantasy: lots of action, a couple of superheroes who fly around dispatching bad guys in neato ways, some sort of psychic powers to which one might apply the word "magic," and a bad, bad, bad Dark Lord. Very bad. Oh so bad. He must be opposed by a Band of Unlikely Heroes, each with his or her own traumatic backstory. The Dark Lord must be incredibly, astonishingly, superhumanly, superabundantly, way over the top powerful, but he must also have some bizarre weakness that nobody else has figured out in a thousand years but which the cute, perky heroine can divine in the midst of a twenty-page battle scene. Wrap it up with some vague stuff about ancient myths and prophecies, and, well, here we are.

Sunday, August 20, 2023

Chinese Fertility Collapse

Chart from Kevin Drum. Remarkably rapid collapse in the past seven years, to a rate lower than anywhere but South Korea.

Comparable rates for other nations: 

South Korea:  0.8
Japan 1.3
Vietnam  2.0
North Korea  1.9
India  2.0
US 1.7

Saturday, August 19, 2023

The Shanama of Shah Tamasp

One of the most spectacular illuminated books in history is this edition of Firdausi's Shanama made for Shah Tamasp around 1550.The paintings have been scattered and now reside on three continents, but the Met has some of the best, with big images online. Most of the images I present are details, because the paintings are too big and complex to display well at the scale I can manage. Above, The Angel Surush Rescues Khusrau Parviz from a Cul-de-sac


Tahmuras Defeats the Divs.

Faridun crosses the River Dijla or Tigris


Faridun Disguised as a Dragon Tests his Sons. Notice how Chinese this dragon is.


Drunket Iranian Camp Attacked by Night

Rustam Sleeping while his Horse Kills a Lion.
(Which, when you think about it, is a bizarre story to tell about your national hero. Like, he was so badass that his horse could kill you without his even waking up?)

And this fellow (Isfandiyar) could slay a dragon without getting out of his cart.

The Feast of Sada.

Baruch Spinoza and What "Radical Philosophy" Might Mean

Baruch Spinoza (1632-1677) is believed by some philosophers to be the originator of modern thought. Jonathan Israel, a major historian of the Enlightenment, is one of these Spinozists, and he has just come out with a massive biography of hist favorite thinker. "Spinoza is, for him, the master thinker to whom we owe freedom, democracy and modernity itself." Spinoza certainly had the right kind of career for a rebel, expelled from his synagogue with full ceremony (chanting, shofar blowing) when he was 24, cast out by his family, scratching a living around the fringes of Dutch intellectual life.

What got Spinoza in so much trouble was, first, insisting that people should reject all received traditions and think for themsevels, and, second, denying the existence of a personal God. And not from any random reason, but because he had proved logically, to his own satisfaction, that such a being was impossible. Spinoza reasoned in a geometric style. He started from a few postulates about being, substance, and essence and reached the conclusion that the universe was self-caused and moved in inevitable progression through its only possible course toward its only possible conclusion, never deviating. In such a universe the notion of a God who made choices or did things was impossible. Miracles were of course out of the question, as was the notion that God "wanted" to be worshipped, or indeed wanted us to do anything. Everything just is, as it must be.

My go-to resource for understanding any philosopher who comes up is the Stanford Encyclopedia, and it has an excellent article on Spinoza. Here I find this interesting passage in which Spinoza explains why people misunderstand their world:    

[People] find—both in themselves and outside themselves—many means that are very helpful in seeking their own advantage, e.g., eyes for seeing, teeth for chewing, plants and animals for food, the sun for light, the sea for supporting fish … Hence, they consider all natural things as means to their own advantage. And knowing that they had found these means, not provided them for themselves, they had reason to believe that there was someone else who had prepared those means for their use. For after they considered things as means, they could not believe that the things had made themselves; but from the means they were accustomed to prepare for themselves, they had to infer that there was a ruler, or a number of rulers of nature, endowed with human freedom, who had taken care of all things for them, and made all things for their use.

Which, says Spinoza, has to be wrong, because the rules of the universe are never suspended in favor of anybody or anything.

Spinoza said he believed in God, but his contemporaries had trouble understanding what he meant by that. The Stanford Encylopedia:

Spinoza’s fundamental insight in Book One [of the Ethics] is that Nature is an indivisible, eternal or self-caused, substantial whole—in fact, it is the only substantial whole. Outside of Nature, there is nothing, and everything that exists is a part of Nature and is brought into being by Nature with a deterministic necessity. This unified, unique, productive, necessary being just is what is meant by ‘God’.

So, maybe, everyting is God, and God is just everything that is. There is, therefore, no need to ask why anything happens, since all events have the same cause, the working out of Nature's immutable laws. Spinoza:

If a stone has fallen from a room onto someone’s head and killed him, they will show, in the following way, that the stone fell in order to kill the man. For if it did not fall to that end, God willing it, how could so many circumstances have concurred by chance (for often many circumstances do concur at once)? Perhaps you will answer that it happened because the wind was blowing hard and the man was walking that way. But they will persist: why was the wind blowing hard at that time? why was the man walking that way at that time? If you answer again that the wind arose then because on the preceding day, while the weather was still calm, the sea began to toss, and that the man had been invited by a friend, they will press on—for there is no end to the questions which can be asked: but why was the sea tossing? why was the man invited at just that time? And so they will not stop asking for the causes of causes until you take refuge in the will of God, i.e., the sanctuary of ignorance.
To call the will of God "the sanctuary of ignorance" was, in 1670, asking to be lynched. Which is why Spinoza's books weren't published until he was dead. (Incidentally just the fact that he was dead didn't keep the Roman Inquisition from investigating him with great vigor, and the inquisitors' report is the source for most of what we know about his life.)

Spinoza's God makes no judgments, which makes most of what preachers say nonsense. TSE:

A judging God who has plans and acts purposively is a God to be obeyed and placated. Opportunistic preachers are then able to play on our hopes and fears in the face of such a God. They prescribe ways of acting that are calculated to avoid being punished by that God and earn his rewards. But, Spinoza insists, to see God or Nature as acting for the sake of ends—to find purpose in Nature—is to misconstrue Nature and “turn it upside down” by putting the effect (the end result) before the true cause.

This anti-clerical attitude is part of what made Spinoza controversial, and one of the ways he inspired later Enlightenment thought. The notion that priests make us feel bad so we will give them money and power was hardly original, but with Spinoza this flowed of necessity from his vast metaphysical aparatus, giving it (for some readers) a magisterial force.

When a famous rabbi asked Albert Einstein if he believed in God, he answered, "I believe in Spinoza's God who reveals himself in the orderly harmony of what exists, not in a God who concerns himself with fates and actions of human beings." You may recall that Einstein parted company with modern physics over whether there can be random events, as quantum mechanics seems to require. Einstein wasn't having any of that; he followed Spinoza in believing that the universe had to unfold just as it did, through necessity, and that this unfolding was God.

What is one to make of this philosophy? Spinoza's thought strikes me as somewhat radical in the context of the seventeenth century, because he attacked so much of religion. I remember reading of one seventeenth-century courtier who said, aiming to make peace in that age of religious war, "So long as a man believes in God, Heaven, Hell, and the Mass, we should not care what else he thinks." Well, Spinoza rejected three of the four and some people who tried to read his book thought he was really rejecting God as well. He was also a little radical in rejecting all received tradition and telling people they had to think for themselves. 

But in a different context I am not so sure. If we cast our minds back to the classical world, I don't find anything Spinoza said to be radical at all. I can imagine him wandering into Aristotle's Grove or Seneca's dining hall and being received warmly by ancient philsophers, who might have fiound his ideas interesting but would certainly not have been surprised by them. The Epicureans explained the universe as the inexorable working out of impersonal forces, just as Spinoza did, and some of them might have laughed at his insistence that this reality should be called God. 

What is most traditional about Spinoza's ideas is what he thought a person who understood them ought to do. TSE:

What we should strive for is to learn how to moderate and restrain the passions and become active, autonomous beings. If we can achieve this, then we will be “free” to the extent that whatever happens to us will result not from our relations with things outside us, but from our own nature. We will, consequently, be truly liberated from the troublesome emotional ups and downs of this life. The way to bring this about is to increase our knowledge, our store of adequate ideas, and reduce as far as possible the power or strength of our inadequate ideas, which follow not from the nature of the mind alone but from its being an expression of how our body is affected by other bodies. In other words, we need to free ourselves from a reliance on the senses and the imagination, since a life guided by the senses and the imagination is a life being affected and led by the objects around us, and rely as much as we can only on our rational faculties.

Which is probably the single most traditional idea in all of human philosophy. Everywhere you look around the world you find people arguing that since the wise man can't do much to change fate, he should concentrate his mind on receiving whatever happens with equanimity. (What was the first watchword Marcus Aurelius set for his guards when he became emperor? "Equanimity.") We may not be able to control events but we might be able to control how we respond to them; there is our freedom, and there is our happiness. And this is how one can see that philosophy is rooted in aristocratic culture, in the detached attitude of men who knew that they were and ought to be above all the petty concerns of little people.

So when I read all this about Spinoza, I got to wondering what was radical about him, and how he and other philosophers might have influenced the Enlightenment. If these ideas were not really all that new, and would have seemed unexceptionable in 300 BC, how did they inspire revolution in the 1700s? 

I suppose the place to start is with science. Modern science depends absolutely on the idea that the universe runs by rules which grind forward impersonally, without God having to do anything about it. So you could say that Spinoza's kind of thinking helped spread that sort of "scientific" attitude. But then Spinoza's books were not published until 65 years after the inquisition condemned Galileo for his machine physics, so I don't think you can show any real causality. It seems that the idea of an inexorable universal progress, drawn from Aristotle and other ancient thinkers, was already in the air in the 1600s.

Was there much influence on politics? One has to be careful, because besides the philosophical thinking that might have been influential, there was also the practical experience of a century of miserable religious warfare. And when the sectarian wars wound down after 1648 Europe got, not peace, but another century of wars fought between ambitious kings. So if some Enlightenment thinker trashes priests and kings, he might be drawing on Spinoza or some other philosopher, but he might just have been reading history.

How about this for a model: there was nothing particularly new about hating priests and their rigamarole, or thinking that doomster preachers were frauds out to take your money, or wanting the common people to have more say in how they were governed. The advice that you ought to think for yourself rather than accepting received wisdom goes back at least to Socrates. So maybe how philosophy influenced the Enlightenment was by making a contrarian attitude toward church, king, country, and tradtition respectable

The political and economic world of the 1700s was being thoroughly shaken up by the transformational engine of global trade: new families were now routinely becoming richer in a generation than ancient ducal houses, and as a collective group the merchants and manufacturers controlled more wealth than all the landowning nobles. Through Spinoza and other philosophers the members of this new elite found a justification, written in the ancient language of geometric logic and Aristotelian metaphysics, for overturning the old order. In these philosophers they read that there was nothing special about kings or nobles, which is what they had begun to suspect already. They read that what they did for a living, learning about the world and capitalizing on the opportunities they found in it, was inherently more virtuous than living off your peasants' rents. They read that the true nobility was not those who inherited status, but those who earned it by personal virtue and a detached attitude toward petty things.

The new thinking gave intellectual and moral dignity to the desire of the new class – the bourgeoisie, let's call it – to take over running the show, and provided a new impetus for the ancient but mostly suppressed notion that what touches all must be approved by all. In the old mechanisms of elected assemblies they found a mechanism that, if brought up to date by a bit of modern rigor, could be used to put this philosophy into motion. Soon the revolutions were under way.

I guess I see a thinker like Spinoza as reflecting his time more than shaping it. I can believe that ideas like his provided another small push in the rush toward the modern world, by, so to speak, protecting modernity on the flank of philosophy. Some people did care about philosophy and theology, so it might have been true that if they had not had Spinoza (and then David Hume and Diderot) to defend them against medieval philsophical ideas, that might have mattered. But I suspect that if the philsophers we know by name did not perform that service, somebody else would have. The social and economic pressure toward revolution was so great, and the ideas of ancient philosophers so ready to hand, that philosophical attacks on monarchy and the church would have emerged from somewhere.

I do not believe that Spinoza or anyone else is the master thinker of modernity; I think the world changes in ways, and by mechanisms, that far overpower any one person's ideas.

Come to think of it, Spinoza believed the same thing.

Friday, August 18, 2023

St. Thomas in India

St. Thomas Cross

Via Alex Tabarrok, I discovered this fascinating Theodore Dalrymple article on the Christians of southern India who believe that their church was founded by the apostle Thomas. When the Portuguese reached India in the sixteenth century they accepted these teachings and built a grand cathedral over the modest shrine at the site of Thomas's martyrdom. Later on skepticism set in, as with everything in providential Christian history, but modern scholarship is making the story of Thomas look more plausible.

Besides the claims of the Indians themselves, there is a strange document called the Gospel of Saint Thomas. This is one of the "Gnostic Gospels," apparently written in the 200s AD and containing gnostic ideas that don't fit with the early church. But it may contain traces of an earlier and more authentic account:

After Jesus's death, according to the Acts, the apostle had been summoned to India – and his martyrdom – by a mysterious king, Gondophares. . . . British archaeologists working in late 19th-century India began to find hoards of coins belonging to a previously unknown Indian king: the Rajah Gondophares, who ruled from AD19 to AD45. If St Thomas had ever been summoned to India, it would have been Rajah Gondophares who would have done it, just as the Acts had always maintained.

The fact that the Acts had accurately preserved the name of an obscure Indian rajah, whose name and lineage had disappeared, implied that it must contain at least a nucleus of genuine historical information.

Besides that, archaeologists have uncovered evidence that the trade between the Roman Empire and India was quite robust in the time of the Apostles, so it would not actually have been very difficult for a Palestinian to reach India in that period. (I have written about some of this evidence here and here.)

In the 1930s, Sir Mortimer Wheeler discovered and excavated a major Roman trading station on the south Indian coast, while other scholars unearthed references showing that in Thomas's time, the trick of sailing with the monsoon had just been discovered, reducing the journey time from the Red Sea to India to just under 40 days. According to a previously overlooked remark by Strabo, first-century geographer and historian, 200 Roman trading vessels a year were making the annual journey to the bazaars of Malabar and back.

More intriguing still, analysis of Roman coin hoards in India has shown that the Roman spice trade peaked exactly in the middle of the first century AD.
Also, the practices of India's ancient Christians suggest that their church was founded early in Christian history, because they continued many Jewish customs that Christians in the Roman Empire later abandoned:

If St Thomas had carried Christianity to India, it is likely that he would have taken a distinctly more Jewish form than the Gentile-friendly version developed for the Greeks of Antioch by St Paul and later exported to Europe. Hence the importance of the fact that some of the St Thomas Christian churches to this day retain Judeo-Christian practices long dropped in the west - such as the celebration of the solemn Passover feast.
One should also note that in the fourth century, when we first get Christian literature in any real quantity, everybody assumed that Thomas had been to India.
In the 4th or early 5th century, Saint Jerome wrote that “Christ lives everywhere. With Thomas in India and Peter in Rome.” 
Indian writers as early as the 4th century mention the followers of Saint Thomas, and the genealogies of some Indian families trace back to people the families say were converted by Saint Thomas himself. 

Reliquary of the Spear Supposed to Have Killed Thomas

As Tabarrok says, the evidence that Thomas preached in India is at least as good as the evidence that Peter preached in Rome. Which, of course, doesn't make it anything like a certainty.

Wikipedia has several articles on the ancient Indian Christians, one of which says that they have more than a million members, now scattered around the world with the Indian disapora. The Portuguese got part of this community to join them within the Catholic fold, which divided the Indian church; these days the people who follow the old Syrian rite are often called Orthodox to distinguish them from the Catholics.

I find all of this wonderful, because I love these questions that hover on the boundary of historical knowledge, trying to piece together hints from oral tradition and documents written two centuries later into some kind of probable truth.

Links 18 August 2023

Silver Mirror, Roman Empie, 4th Century AD

Scott Siskind reviews a biography of Vladimir Putin; and very interesting highlights from the comments.

Suffragette card game from 1909 found in a British cupboard.

One theory about the coup in Niger is that the generals had been caught stealing millions from the defense budget and decided to strike first before they could be prosecuted.

Nice array of nature photos from yet another contest.

Key sentence from a detailed study of senior officers in the Royal Navy, extracted by Tyler Cowen: "Findings suggest differences in motivation are more important than differences in general intelligence, or personality traits, in predicting assessed performance, potential within, and actual rate of advancement to, senior leadership positions."

Obscene Russian folk tales.

Kenneth Roggoff says AI has made human chess more interesting, and he also notes that public interest in human chess seems to have risen since AI got better than the best humans, so maybe AI won't be as bad as people think. Maybe an AI poet could help save contemporary poetry?

The technology behind trying to scan and read the papyri from the Villa of the Papyri; more a software problem than hardware.

Producing synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air, carbon neutral. Isn't "synthetic natural gas" a great term? Incidentally it was first called "natural gas" to distinguish it from coal gas, which is methane made from coal.

Hoard of Celtic gold coins found on the Isle of Anglesey in Wales.

Major cuts at West Virginia University: 169 faculty (7%), 32 of 388 majors. Driven by declining enrollment, from 31,000 in 2014 to 26,000 in 2023, projected to fall to 21,000 by 2030.

The FBI warns that people who lose money in cryptocurrency scams are then being scammed again by people who say they can trace and recover lost cryptocurrency assets.

Richly decorated synagogue from the 1st century AD found in Kuban, Russia.

Professor flunks all his students after ChatGPT falsely claims it wrote their papers.

The mystery of two not-quite-identical photographs of what is said to be the world's first rooftop solar panels.

This week's random past post is What Childhood Should Be, 2010.

"A new study by scientists from Oberlin College and NASA suggests that electron transport chains—a metabolism system that creates usable energy—could have been present in Earth’s prebiotic minerals and sea water."

Just a note that perusing old British Ordnance Survey maps online I found a hamlet called Moon Foot, which is within the Vale of Nightshade.

Ukraine Links

Sign at Russian recruiting center asking Russian men to help restore the empire, with a very expansive map.

Fed up with corruption in their military recruitment, Ukraine announces they are firing the heads of all their regional recruitment centers and replacing them with soldiers disabled in the war.

Ukrainian soldiers have absorbed one key element of NATO doctrine, rapid counter-battery fire: "As soon as they notice a worthy Rus target from a Fury-type drone, they try to hit it with Excalibur or Himars rockets." Every second shaved off the time from discovering an artillery piece to attacking it increases the deadliness of the attack.

Amazing drone videos show Russian troops fleeing from the southern village of Urozhaine and getting slaughtered by Ukrainian artillery. Obviously they were held in place for too long, with no withdrawal plan or even vehicles, and Russian bloggers are letting the commanders have it for sacrificing these men.

Russian account of a small battle near Kherson in which drones played a leading role; seems there were about as many drones in this fight as men.

From War Translated, Russian accounts of how hard it is all along the front. Russians are getting very nervous about a possible southern breakthrough.

The old tanks (T-55, T-62) Russia has been pulling out of storage are certainly useful, but they are not equivalent to modern tanks, as you can see in this short video of a Bradley APC that is struck by a Russian tank round but seems perfectly fine. I doubt that would be the case with a modern round fired by a T-90.

American military blogger Def Mon endorses an interesting Russian account of the fighting near Robotyne.

Alleged high-level Russian memo laying out major problems in the army.

Using drones with thermal optics to find Russian mines after sunset, because they stay warm longer than the surrounding dirt and grass.

Did Something Happen in 2012?

Erik Hoel points to 2012 as the year our mental health started to collapse, with a whole bunch of charts like this one.

Youth self-harm.

I can only think of two ways to explain this: either it's about smart phones and social media, or just a reflection of the overall terrible mood in the country.

One the side of smart phones, there's this, about sleep:

Between 2012 and 2015, the number of teens failing to get seven hours of sleep per night increased by 22 percent, ultimately meaning that by 2015 a full 57 percent more teens were sleep-deprived than in 1991; presently, 60 to 70 percent of Ameri­can teens “live with a borderline to severe sleep debt.” After 2012, the proportion of teens who regularly skip breakfast spiked from around a quarter to a third. Between that year and 2015, Twenge writes, “boys’ depression increased by 21% . . . and girls’ increased by 50%,” while between 2007 and 2015, the suicide rate among twelve-to-fourteen-year-olds doubled for boys and tripled for girls. 

My experience with teenagers is that they stay up all night when they take their smart phones to bed.

Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Two Amazing Carpets from 16th-Century Iran



Above, the Schwarzenberg Carpet in the Museum of Islamic Art, Doha, Qatar; below the Emperor's Carpet in the Met. The Emperor's Carpet was made in Iran but ended up belong to the Habsburg emperors of Austria.




Seeing Rome through a Christian Lens, or, Morality and History

Interview with British historian and podcaster Tom Holland:

Though Rome still stirs the passions of history fans in the West, Holland is reluctant to say that our civilisation is still shaped by their legacy. “I think you can say that China today is recognisably the heir of the empire that existed 2,000 years ago,” he says, as we drink tea. “I don’t think that you can say that about modern Europe.”

Holland stresses Rome’s unique position as the empire that “ruled the entirety of the Mediterranean seaboard”, an achievement that has never been replicated before or since. “So I think that purely in geopolitical terms Rome is alien to us in a way that China, the Chinese empire, is not to the contemporary Chinese,” he says.

At Rome’s height the empire spanned from Hadrian’s wall to the pyramids in Egypt, its success partly explained by its ability to conquer vast territories and convert its new subjects into good Roman citizens.

With debates raging about “decolonising” schools and museums, activists tend to focus on another great empire: Britain’s. Holland is insistent these arguments should not be applied to his book, contending that the Romans wouldn’t have even understood the term.

His previous book, Dominion, delves into how the West is moulded by a Christian tradition, which has provided the moral lens through which we observe both current and past events.

Holland says we cannot use this lens to examine the Romans, who operated on an entirely different set of beliefs and philosophies. He says Christianity “has transformed our understanding so utterly that when we look back at the pre-Christian world, it’s as though we’re looking at a glass darkly”.

“The Roman attitudes to empire, which are complex, ambivalent, sophisticated, but are not shaped by the Christian assumptions that I think determine how we see empire.”

Holland views contemporary debates around rewriting history through a moral gaze, with good guys to be celebrated and bad guys to be cancelled, as a thoroughly Christian discourse. . . .

When pushed on his own views on so-called “woke” history, his answer is nuanced yet firm. “I personally don’t think that the arc of history bends toward justice,” he says.

“I don’t think that there are right sides of history. But it’s important for our age because it’s a very moral age and it needs moral lessons that history be made to teach those lessons, I mean, I think that’s a fool’s errand myself, but I can see why people do it.”

I don’t see why people can't apply moral judgments to people in the past, if that’s what they want to do. But I certainly agree that you will not achieve any understanding of the past if you start from modern moral assumptions.

To think hard about the past, even the past of 100 years ago, is to understand that it was a different world where people saw the world differently than we do. If you have no interest in understanding the past, in trying to see things as other have, then to me you are not doing history and should just think about something else.

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Lahaina Fire Timeline


The Damascus Room

In the 1700s and 1800s, the rich merchants of Damascus competed by commissioning lavish public reception rooms for their houses. The Arabic word is qa'a. One supposes they were used to impress potential partners with the soundness of your finances and intimidate underlings with vastness of your wealth. In the twentieth century these somehow ceased to be useful, although I am not sure why. Did steamships and railroads change the trade routes? Did these come to seem so old-fashioned that they signaled being out of date rather than being rich? Or was there just a major shake-up in which the families that owned these were replaced by others? Colonialism might be a factor, but my understanding is that there were always rich merchants in Damascus. For whatever reason, quite a few of them were sold to European and American buyers, disassembled and whisked away, and they now grace museums around the world.

This one is now in the Museum of Islamic Art in Doha, Qatar, and I found it on their web site. They acquired it just recently, so apparently there are still some of these out there in private hands. They think it was built in 1816. They are particularly proud of the ceiling.

The decoration includes a lot of text, mainly Quranic verses but also this otherwise unknown poem:

From the safety of the hills the friendly nightingales sang in blessing
Heralding glad tidings of happiness and bliss
As they approached our neighborhood they sang out
Proclaiming music for us to enjoy,
They amazed us with eloquence and the sound of melody
In the safety of the branches high above, we made their acquaintance
It is said there is a Qa’a where well-being was created
Up to a tall tree of tranquillity or Garden of Eden
Herein happiness brushing off in the middle of its courtyard
And alongside peace, for an eternity it resided 

The Met also has a Damascus Room, which they say was constructed in 1707 but modified over the decades. The difference in the color of the wood between the two rooms seems to be about how it has been conserved. The Met says theirs has been darkened by many layers of varnish, so maybe either the Qataris or somebody else removed a lot of old varnish from their room.


Is there any space in any of the masions built by tech magnates that rivals these?


Declining Choice in the Digital World

 At the NY Times, David Streitfeld complains that the digital world, which should open up more information to everyone, is in some ways actually restricting it. If you own a physical copy of a book or cd, you can do whatever you want with it: sell it, lend it, give it away. But publishers are doing all they can to keep you from doing any of those things with a digital resource like an ebook or digital audio file. Not only that, but digital services can and sometimes do simply erase things from their servers, yanking them out of the world; if we were talking about physical objects, copies of them would exist somewhere, like in libraries, but digital resources can much more easily disappear.

Some attempts to digitally archive disappearing physical resources have been attacked. For example the digital archive of music from 78 rpm records, some of them more than a century old, has been threatened with closure by the music publishers' association.

Part of this has to do with our horrible copyright laws. It's simply ridiculous that a recording issued on a 78 rpm disk in 1948 and out of print since 1949 is still protected by copyright. Another factor is that it costs money for digital providers to keep digital material available for sale or rental, so they have a habit of regularly pruning their lists:

When Netflix shipped DVDs to customers, there were about 100,000 to choose from. Streaming, which has a different economics, has reduced that to about 6,600 U.S. titles. Most are contemporary. Only a handful of movies on Netflix were made between 1940 and 1970.

The internet has made some kind of information much more readily available, but it has not led to the paradise of free information for everyone that we imagined back in the 90s.

Monday, August 14, 2023

A Military-Industrial Policy

At the NY Times, Brett Stephens articulates a plan I have seen numerous hints of on Twitter:

Right now we have serious problems with our defense-industrial infrastructure. Our shipyards don’t have enough resources to build sufficient numbers of submarines, destroyers and frigates to increase the size of the Navy. Many of our existing ships must wait years for necessary repairs even as we face a growing maritime challenge from China. We’re struggling to replace all of the munitions we’ve given to Ukraine, especially artillery shells but also Stingers and Javelins. And inflation has eaten away at the value of our defense dollars. This doesn’t get a lot of mainstream attention, but people close to the problem understand that it borders on an emergency.

So my suggestion is that pro-Ukraine Democrats and anti-China Republicans — and vice versa — unite around legislation that would fund a five-year, $250 billion supplemental defense bill to refurbish our defense infrastructure, create thousands of unionized jobs, restock our munitions and help our allies. In honor of Franklin Roosevelt, I would call it the “Arsenal of Democracy” bill.

The problem with this plan, as compared with Biden's plans to invest that kind of money in transportation infrastructure and clean energy, is that when you're done what you end up with is a bunch of weapons you hope you never need to use. Whereas with infrastructure, instead of bunkers full of missiles on Guam you get new roads and railroads and lead-free water, and you speed the process of replacing coal with solar and wind. On the other hand, with the military option you might have deterred a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Stephens also doesn't say anything about how we're going to pay for it. I think that if this were paid for with higher taxes on the rich, and it were the only spending option that could get the votes, I would sign on.

This plan reminds me of an important and little known episode in US history, Roosevelt's "billion dollar navy." Before 1940 FDR was never able to get any money from Congress to build up the army, because isolationist sentiment was too strong, But he was able to get funding for shipbuilding, working with an alliance of internationalists who shared his fear of another great war, a few isolationists who thought a navy would be useful in keeping enemies away, and leftists who wanted more union shipyard jobs. As a result, by Pearl Harbor the US had more than doubled the size of its fleet and had eleven new aircraft carriers under construction.

My Bibliography Part IIb: Delaware DOT Reports

Besides the NPS, my other client that has put some of my reports online is the Delaware Delaware Department of Transportation. DelDOT actually has a ton of archaeological reports available online, everything from major studies to little reports for intersection improvements; below are just my more interesting studies.These have been redacted to remove sensitive information, especially the locations of the sites.

Farm Life on the Appoquinimink, 1750-1830. Archaeological Discoveries at the McKean/Cochran Farm Site Odessa, New Castle County, Delaware. (1999) Excavation report on a major colonial farm site. What interested me most about this site was the use in the coastal plain of a kind of dairy building designed to use by a mountain spring.

The Ordinary and the Poor in Eighteenth-Century Delaware: Excavations at the Augustine Creek North and South Sites,, New Castle County, Delaware. (2001) Lots of good findings at two eighteenth-century farm sites, led to an article in Northeast Historical Archaeology.

An Ordinary Family in Eighteenth Century Delaware: Excavations at the Dawson Family Site, Kent County, Delaware. (2002). After we had already excavated this site I found an aerial photograph that showed it as bare earth criss-crossed by earthmoving machines during road construction in the 1960s. If I had seen those photographs, we would not have bothered with this site. But by some fluke parts of the site did survive, including a cellar hole full of wonderful eighteenth-century artifacts.

Historic Context: The Archaeology of Farm and Rural Dwelling Sites in New Castle and Kent Counties, Delaware 1730-1770 and 1770-1830. (2002) Being tasked to write this document gave me a chance to review all the historical archaeology done in Delaware before 2000 and sum up what had been learned. This led to my paper, "Delaware Archaeology and the Revolutionary Eighteenth Century."

Historic Context: The Archaeology of African American Life in St. Georges Hundred, Delaware, 1770-1940. (2016) In 1770, most of the black people in North America lived on plantations. In 1900, a great many of them lived in small rural communities of two to twenty homes. This document dives deeply into the archaeology and history of one Delaware farming district to investigate how and when that happened and what life was like in those communities. I think this ended up as a great document because we had a terrific team: one guy right out of graduate school who was very up to date on the theoretical side of African Diaspora studies, another who was great at using title deeds and other sources to document the step by step formation of rural communities, and others, including students at Delaware State University who helped with research.

Archaeology of the Puncheon Run Site. (2005) Excavation report from a sprawling mass of ancient Native American camp sites that span at least 3,000 years.

Arthur Sze, "Fugitive"

Red begonias stricken by frost –
listen: they nail plywood sheets and complete the garage decking–
swarmed by mosquitoes, you wander hot, thirsty, disoriented in a palm forest–
you have blooded your hands on barbed wire–
after a snowfall, you inhale starlight while standing in an orchard–
you have had three operations to repair a torn elbow–
green mist rising from leafing willows–
running across a dune of white sand, you discover a pile of oryx bones–
they stack elephant tusks in a pyramid and set them on fire–
you have staggered out of a house in flames and lived to say this–
you have been thrust by rifle butt to a river and heard someone shout, "Swim!"–
the grass turns to yellow-gold stalks–
minutes replete with the noise of honeybees–
minutes replete with river gold–
asleep, she rides the waves of her breath onto the shore of your shoulder–
you coil hoses and haul them to a barn–
you have loved, hated, imagined, despaired, and the fugitive colors existence have quickened in your body–
after seventy years, you write with shivering memory into the sunrise–

In the August 7 New Yorker

Sunday, August 13, 2023

The Museum of Islamic Art, Doha

Tyler Cowen gave this museum a rave review, and since I'm not ever likely to set foot in Qatar, I decided to check out their web site. I wrote about this I.M. Pei building back in 2010 when it opened, and praised its combination of traditional forms with modern rigor:

For any regular readers who ever wondered what it is that I expect contemporary architects to do, I answer, something like this museum.

But back in 2010 the museum had no online presence, so I couldn't say anything about the contents. Now it has a respectable web site, although it has a long way to go to catch up with the best western musuems.

Mosque lamp, Egypt, made for a sultan in the 1300s

Page from the Blue Koran, made in Spain or North Africa, 9th century

Finial, India, c 1900

Portrait of Fath ‘Ali Shah Qajar. Attributed to Mihr ‘Ali. Iran, 1816


Necklace, Morocco, 1750-1900


Shah Jehan on the Peacock Throne, 1635

Bowl, Iraq, 9th century

Astrolabe, 12th century

Silk cloth that once covered the Ka'ba in Mecca, 1846

Jeweled box, India, 16th century

Curtain from Nasric Spain, 15th century

Steel war mask, western Iran or Turkey, 15th century

Koran page illuminated by Muhammad ibn Sayf al-Din al-Baghdadi, generally known simply as al-Naqqash, ‘The Painter’. Iraq, 1325