While Russia continues to attack Ukrainian civilians night after night, Ukraine has responded with a massive coordinated attack on four airfields where Russian long-range strategic bombers are based.
In Russia, 41 aircraft were damaged, including an A-50, Tu-95, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160, according to the head of the Security Service of Ukraine. . . . The estimated value of the damaged strategic aviation is over $7 billion.
One of the airfields struck was in Siberia, 4,000 km from Ukraine, and Ukraine claimed that this attack was mounted by smuggling the drones into Russia and launching them from trucks. Some links:
Story at the Kyiv Independent.
Satellite image of the Belaya airfield in Siberia here, with at least three destroyed aircraft, likely Tu-22 bombers. More here.
A deputy in the Russian Duma went on a rant about the lack of preparations for such an attack, and the intelligence failure involved.
Satirist Darth Putin on negotiations in Istanbul:
Russia: "you have no cards"
Ukraine: "you have no bombers"
Video posted by a Russian citizen: "Here's a plane burning down, and seven more like it."
Thread from Evergreen Intel, which she is updating as new images and video come in.
Update 6/2: thread listing confirmed losses, which are up to 16 aircraft destroyed or "damaged," meaning damaged in a way that you can see from space.
Summary of the overall military situation from Ukrainian reserve officer Tatarigami. He notes that although Ukraine is holding the front line, that is not enough to induce Russia to make peace:
To truly shift the calculus in Ukraine’s favor, there must be a combination of a stalled frontline and mounting costs for Russia - not just in monetary terms, but in strategic capacity. These costs include Russia’s diminishing ability to project power globally, compete economically with the West and China, and maintain its status as a relevant geopolitical force.
Today's attack is a clear example of a strike that, while not directly influencing the battlefield, significantly erodes Russia’s long-term strategic assets - many of which are Soviet-era legacies that Russia cannot replace in the near term. The loss of AWACS aircraft, a quarter of the Black Sea Fleet, much of its Soviet-era armored inventory, a substantial portion of its attack helicopter fleet, its positions in Syria, and now a major blow to its strategic aviation - all cumulatively weaken Russia’s global military reach.
If Ukraine can continue to hold the line, even if that means gradual tactical withdrawals from small settlements while stalling Russian forces at the operational-strategic level, then the ever-increasing cost of war may eventually compel the Kremlin to acknowledge a sobering reality: that continuing the war not only worsens the situation in Ukraine, but accelerates Russia’s own strategic decline.
1 comment:
Officer Tatarigami's summary reads more like a prayer. Ukraine is running out of Ukrainians to hold the front line. But that's not what I want to talk about.
Putin and Russia have been humiliated in front of the world, so I'm waiting to see how this plays out. But did you notice how this drone strike occurred on the day before the second round of peace talks were to be held? That's not a coincidence. That's Zelenski humiliating Trump and the U.S. too.
The Kiev Independent says Trump was never notified. I'm skeptical of any news or opinions coming out of Ukraine from Ukrainian sources, as I am skeptical of any news or opinions coming out of the White House, Pentagon, or Nato concerning this war, but what the Independent says here sounds right. Trump wants to be the hero. I doubt he knowingly stepped all over his brain child.
So assuming the Independent is correct, and Ukraine did not notify Trump ahead of time, did the CIA or Pentagon inform him? Or did they not know too? I find the latter almost impossible to believe. We are always supplying Ukraine with targeting information and satellite images. Hard to believe we didn't for this. Those two outfits are tethered to Ukraine.
I also find it interesting Trump has not yet commented on this. Very unusual for him. A lot here going on behind the scenes, a lot we will never know, and none of it is good.
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