So Trump and the Emir of Qatar have arranged a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. Which both sides promptly violated, which led Trump to publicly berate both sides:
We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.Which as a summary of Middle Eastern politics has much to recommend it. As of Tuesday afternoon, there is no news of attacks, so for now the cease fire holds.
The real reason for the cease-fire has to be that both sides agree with Decker Eveleth's assessment, which I posted here a few days ago:
Neither side has demonstrated the capability they need to end the conflict on favorable terms to them.
Israel's decapitation strike did not disable Iran's military, their bombs only did limited damage to Iran's nuclear sites, and their air force is probably reaching the end of its ability to continue large nightly strikes. (Pilots, aircraft, and missile stockpiles all have limits.)
Meanwhile Iran's ballistic missile attacks were diminishing and they seemed to be running out of missiles about as fast as Israel was running out of interceptors. Since they have apparently decided not to try interfering with oil shipping through the Straight of Hormuz, I'm not sure what other options they had.
So, exhaustion, declining returns on their efforts, etc.
But is anything resolved? Inspectors from the IAEA says they have not detected any increased radiation in Iran's air, which probably means that no bombs hit stores of uranium. (Unless maybe far underground? I have no idea about that.) Which is a good thing for people in the region, but if nothing was destroyed but a few dozen centrifuges, what did Israel accomplish? Report are coming out today that purport to be based on early US intelligence assessments of our own strike, and they all look like this:
Early US intel assessment suggests that the strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites. Core components of the country’s nuclear program are still intact and the program is likely only set back by months.
I can't see that anything about regional politics has really changed. It would be great if this defeat emboldens people in Iran to overthrow their government, but I don't see that happening. Instead the news from Iran is of "victory rallies," with regime supporters paryting in the streets to celebrate their survival.
(Incidentally, the Ukrainian bloggers I follow are disappointed in Israel and Trump, and really wanted them to keep bombing until Iran had endured at least as much suffering as the Shaheds have imposed on Ukraine. Several people in my Ukraine feed reposted a cartoon that shows a Russian and a Ukrainian watching the US and Israeli bombing campaigns and saying, "You fight like pussies.")
The only clear winner in this fiasco seems to be Donald Trump, who has been on a roll. Here's another Turmpian gem:
As you know, Vladimir Putin called me and asked 'Can I help you with Iran?'
I said 'No, I don't need help with Iran. I need help with you.'
I mean, I don't think his strike accomplished much beyond 1) showing support for Israel, and 2) reminding Iran that facilities deep underground can, in fact, be bombed. But nobody else has been able to solve this problem, either, so that would be a lot to ask of a deranged orange narcissist. Glad that he put his personal reputation behind the cease fire when that could easily have gone badly for him.
If this cease fire holds, my overall response is going to be "it could have been a lot worse." But it would probably have been better not to do it at all.
UPDATE
From this morning's breakfast conversation here: "If Trump is the sanest person in the room, that's a really crazy room."
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