Jesús Fernández-Villaverde on Twitter/X:
Perhaps the fastest decline in fertility ever recorded has taken place in Guatemala’s poorest, least educated, and indigenous majority rural areas, where women’s rights are weakest, between 2006 and 2025.
In 2006, Guatemala’s total fertility rate was 3.8, comparable to that of a sub-Saharan African country. By 2025, it had fallen to 1.8, only slightly above the fertility rate of non-Hispanic Whites in the United States (around 1.6). At the current pace, Guatemala will have a lower fertility rate than non-Hispanic Whites in the U.S. before 2030.
Does your preferred explanation (women’s education, feminism, smartphones, or women choosing holidays in Bali over children) fit that pattern?
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