But so far as I can see the only real power center left in Venezuela is the army, and to date they have remained loyal to the Bolivarian regime. Who is going to overthrow them? Most of the opposition is in exile. If power just passes to the Vice President or the Defense Minister, what difference will that make?
I few years ago the US war-gamed a scenario of trying to overthrow Maduro and the end result was the whole country descending into anarchy. So I don't think our fighting the Venezuelan army is a great idea.
I guess we'll see, but so far this looks to me like our strike on Iran: big booms, little long-term impact.
Update: Russian foreign ministry denounces this "armed aggression."
Update: confirmed that the Vice President, Defense Minister, and Interior Minister (the regime's top enforcer) are all still at large.
Update: the one group of people who really seem to love this are Ukrainians. My Ukraine war feed is full of posts featuring Maduro and Putin talking about their great friendship.
Update: Oz Katerji sees lots of equivalences: "All the Realists must now immediately demand the surrender of Venezuela to the large nuclear power, and don’t blame me about it, I didn’t make the rules."
Update, from Big Content Guy: "big day for guys who like to monitor situations."
1 comment:
The US action in Venezuela is wholly illegal - but who in the Putin/Trump era gives a damn about international law?
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