I haven't posted much about the Ukraine war here lately, because it seemed like all the important action was in Washington. But the war has raged on, and I have spent several hours this week catching up.
First, the tone of the top Ukrainian posters is upbeat and defiant. They say, and western governments generally agree, that since October Russia has suffered its worst losses of the war for its smallest gains. The comic book evil of some Russian actions – for example, drone operators hunting random civilians in the city of Kherson – has only fed Ukrainian determination, and that of their European friends. I have seen no signs of fear or even nervousness about what Russia might achieve. It is widely asserted that Russia keeps making outrageous demands in peace talks because they have no chance of achieving those goals on the battlefield. (For example, control of all of Kherson.) I have seen several posts saying some version of, "For the defending side to win a war, all they have to do is keep defending." Ukrainian bloggers widely shared a Forbes estimate that at current rates of advance it would take Russia several centuries and tens of millions of casualties to conquer Ukraine. Ukrainians believe they can keep defending for years, with or without US help.
Ukraine has also released video of new drone boats that carry aerial drones.
The vast array of drones makes the battlefield increasingly deadly. Russia has continued to make some mechanized assaults, but they generally fail, and half the armor is knocked out by drones before it has advanced half a mile. So most Russian attacks are now made by infantry, either on foot or mounted on dunebuggies, atvs, and small motorcycles. Ukraine has reponded to this tactic by stringing hundreds of miles of barbed wire all along the front. Wire isn't much use against tanks, but it is deadly to men on motorcycles. Incidentally, both sides now generally use land drones to lay both barbed wire and minefields.
The guys who count equipment losses in the war are still at it. The lastest update on Russian equipment losses shows at least 100 more tanks and 300 other armored vehicles destroyed in April, bringing the total losses to 3947 tanks and 8550 other armored vehicles, plus 139 jet aircraft, 155 helicopters, 322 SAM systems, more than 2,000 artillery pieces, etc., to a total of more than 21,000 systems. People who study Russia's vast array of military equipment storage bases say that almost all the good armored vehicles have already been withdrawn for refurbishment, and that what remains is increasingly outdated and rusted out. Those old vehicle hulls are still useful, but the cost of making them combat ready is rising, and the end result is probably less effective. Russia is not "running out" of armored vehicles, since they continue to manufacture hundreds every year, but they really are facing a shortage and this shows up in their pathetic offensive progress.
At least 5921 Russian officers have been killed in the war, based on memorials and funeral announcements. Mediazona and the BBC have counted 106,745 Russian dead overall and estimate the actual total is 164,000 to 237,000. The higher figure is about how many Americans died in Europe during World War II. Russia is a nation of 144 million, with 800,000 Russian boys turning 18 every year, so they can obviously endure such losses, especially since many of the men in the assault squads are older volunteers and quite a few are criminals. Still, these losses hurt. Plus, on paper Russia has a fairly generous system for taking care of elderly combat veterans and especially disabled veterans, and that is going to impose huge costs going forward.
The Trump administration's attempts to broker a cease-fire foundered on Russian intransigience, although, to be fair, the Ukrainians were probably only pretending to go along because they knew Russia would balk; they don't want a cease-fire either.
So the tragedy goes on, with Russia's losses mounting and Ukrainian resolve unshaken, no end in sight, Russia unable to give up but equally unable to win.
3 comments:
I trust nothing anyone on either side says about this war. This includes so-called objective analysts. My own guess is they are killing each other off like flies. Russia is Russia, and Zelinsky acts more like a coke addict with each passing day, and I don't blame him. He's running out of recruits, and the ultra-nationalists are breathing down his neck. The guy could use a little escapism.
Pakistanis and Indians have been wanting to kill each other for years, and who knows, maybe this time they hit the lottery. (Does the wind blow West or East over there? Concerned by-standers want to know?) The latter I hope. History and religion don't bode well for their futures.
The EU interfered with an election in Romania, and the AFD is now the most popular party in Germany. And we, the U.S., aren't doing so well ourselves -- due process, suppressing speech, interest payments on the debt this year that will reach a trillion dollars. Think about that for a while. And in a few years Americans will look back fondly at a time when it was only a trillion. Last year it was 250 billion. The interest payments as a percentage of the budget are going in the wrong direction.
And lastly there is Israel versus everyone. What can be said that hasn't been said a thousand times before? The world is going insane.
Thank goodness for the two ponds. Still, I'm becoming an isolationist.
That was me, Shadow. My name has disappeared. Perhaps it was nuked? Or maybe I've been sanctioned?
The EU interfered in Romanian elections? How so?
The only thing I can imagine which comes remotely close is the banning of far-right, pro-Russian, Fascist-allied candidate Calin Georgescu, as he himself absurdly claims his ban was "an anti-democratic putsch by the European Union".
The only body capable of banning any politician in Romania is the Permanent Electoral Authority, which forms a new Central Electoral Bureau for every election cycle, which in turn the actual organ of the state which enacts said bans.
Such bureaus are formed from up to five judges from the Supreme Court, up to ten representatives from political parties, and then both the president and vice president of the PEA itself.
Just such a bureau decided to remove Georgescu from the ballots after first round voting and annul the results, because the PEA discovered that Georgescu's campaign had reported no external campaign spending, but the Romanian Intelligence Service assessed that his online campaigning was massive and could not possibly have been achieved without a great deal of such spending. Georgescu then appealed the decision, had his day in court, and lost - the Constitutional Court of Romania upheld the ruling against him.
If you want to suggest some elaborate, ridiculous conspiracy theory about how the EU were magically able to coerce the Romanian government into doing all this, you need to somehow account for (and provide factual evidence for) their supposed sway over all of the following:
A) the Permanent Electoral Authority
B) the Romanian Supreme Court
C) nearly a dozen individual politicians drawn from multiple competing political parties occupying seats on the Central Electoral Bureau
D) the Romanian Intelligence Services
and E the Constitutional Court of Romania
If, however, you would like to have a moment of self reflection and recognize the sheer absurdity of such a nonsensical notion, perhaps you might admit that you've been misled somehow, and reconsider where, how, and by whom you were misled regarding this issue. I'll give you a hint - Facebook posts are not only not reliable sources of journalism, they are in fact proven outlets for concerted misinformation campaigns by bad faith actors.
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