Saturday, April 11, 2020

Some Covid 19 Data from Germany

Major study just published with preliminary data from a small town that was a major early center of the Covid-19 outbreak in Germany. They found that 14% of the town tested positive for the virus but did not have an active infection, while 2% were ill. They found no evidence of virus transmission from surfaces; none of the cases they investigated started that way, and no surface they tested had transmissable virus on it. (A different and harder to answer question than just whether any viral particles are present.) They found that by far the most important means of transmission was people being together in groups.

I thought this was interesting for pondering how we are going to cope with this over the next two years or so until we can all get vaccinated. Social distancing is working but we can't stay on lockdown for two years. It may turn out that we simply have to stop getting together in crowds for the duration. Me, I hate crowds and I'm fine with that, but it will be very hard on others. And how can people in a city like New York live at all while avoiding crowds?

I imagine I will be working at home for the duration, to avoid crowding Washington's public transit system etc. But I wonder how many others will be able to go back to work, and how.


JustPeachy said...

That is really good news! I hope this, and the work being done in several other places, will lead to some letting-up of restrictions soon.

Like you, I don't enjoy crowds, so it's no loss to me if all the concerts are cancelled and bars are closed.

But it seems a shame that we have had to close the beaches and playgrounds. These are probably not big disease vectors, and it would do everyone good to be outdoors more.

Shadow said...

He says transmission from supermarkets, surfaces, etc. hasn't been proven. That isn't reassuring. How would you know an infection is acquired by contact with a surface or by handling produce laying on a supermarket shelf in a study like this? I would think it would have to be a controlled test.

Not sure why only 500 of the study's 1,000 participants are included in the "results and summaries."

szopeno said...

"It may turn out that we simply have to stop getting together in crowds for the duration"

Life is good.