Friday, September 5, 2025

Links 5 September 2025

Conjoined clay toads fro Vichama, Peru

If you're curious about the Bhagavad Gita and its place in Hinduism, this 30-minute Alan Watts lecture seems like a good starting place.

A philosopher argues for immortality, summary and link at Marginal Revolution. My only deep thought on this topic is that we don't really understand time, and if the universe is a sort of 4-dimensional construction, every life, and everything else, is around forever anyway.

Military expert describes all 76 weapons shown in the Chinese parade, 25-minute video.

Thread on the sex recession in America, with some interesting comments as well.

Interesting month coming up for Congress.

Dystopian drawings of people in boxes by Ben Tolman.

Interesting NY Times article on women having doubts about birth control pills. The article's focus is on social media but I have known many smart women who refused to take the pill, going back to the 1970s, so qualms about messing with your body's hormonal cycles are not new.

The weird debate over vaccinating newborns against Hepatitis B, with many accusations of wokeness and tyranny. This piece doesn't even mention that we long ago had a similar debate over treating newborns for gonorrhea, which can cause blindness. The authorities decided back then, and have decided again now, that you simply can't trust parents to say if they have engaged in risky sex. 

Robin Hanson talks to ChatGPT about past cultural conflicts between the young and the old. ChatGPT says the young almost always win. I agree in general but I would say that not all of these examples are actually the young vs. the old. Alcohol prohibition in the US was not young drinkers vs. old fogeys. 

Manhood, this author argues, is socially constructed rather than biological, because men naturally do as little as possible: "manhood exists to push against the default setting: self-indulgence and avoidance of responsibility."

One-hour video on the SR-71 Blackbird. It has nearly nine million views and gets huge praise from aviation buffs and engineers.

What did the Voyager spacecraft find at the heliopause?

The US population may fall in 2025 (Twitter/X, Substack), because negative immigration my cancel out the small surplus of births over deaths.

Interesting article on the Romanian educational system, which may be the most stratified in the world; the result is great performance on the International Math Olympiad and other elite venues, but overall mediocrity.

Alex Tabarrok on the simple mathematics of Chinese innovation: "In the 20th century the world’s most populous countries were poor but that was neither the case historically nor will it be true in the 21st century."

Autism "fast facts" by a stats wonk. (Twitter/X) Here's a good one: "When financial incentives for schools to diagnose autism are enacted, rates rise sharply, by an average of 25% in a single year." Longer article from the same source.

Long essay on the generally mediocre economic returns for biotech startups, and the hope that AI will radically improve the process of discovering new drugs and other useful molecules.

Paywalled psychology paper arguing that political extremists of both the left and the right have similar brain activity patterns that emphasize emotional reaction.

Immigration and government finances in Britain. The claim is that immigrants are a net positive.

From the same author, the impact of the Mariel Boatlift of 1980, which brought 125,000 Cubans to Miami in one month. 

Ethan Mollick asks the LLMs to create "the most annoying CAPTCHA in the world." Very amusing. (Twitter/X)

Review of Agnes Callard's new book, subtitled "The Case for a Philosophical Life."

Remains of a wooden Roman bridge found in Switzerland.

An argument that liberal democracy cannot be defended without a realistic view of human nature.

Matt Yglesias explains how dislike of immigrants drives stupid economics: "I don't like seeing immigrants from India at my local Costco is, IMO, not a great political principle but everyone is entitled to their preferences. But the danger metastasizes when people build a whole crank economic theory around their arbitrary preference." (Twitter/X)

On Twitter/X, an economist responds to all the talking points used to defend Trump's tariffs, so he doesn't have to keep doing it over and over again.

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Orkney

I've just finished a long, moderately interesting book about Orkney, and now my thoughts take me to those islands where Britain ends and the North Sea meets the Atlantic.

Kirkwall, with the Cathedral of St. Magnus.

I almost went there, when I was in Britain, but my now wife and I decided on Paris instead. Glad I've seen Paris but hope I get to Orkney some day.

This 1654 map is good enough to show you the basic layout: Mainland is the big island in the middle, with the North Islands to the north and the South Islands to the south. The harbor of Scapa Flow is between Mainland and the South Islands.

For reasons I have never understood, Orkney has an amazing collection of Neolithic monuments. This is the famous buried village of Skara Brae.

Stone Circle known as the Ring of Brodgar.

Maeshowe. The medieval Saga of the Earls of Orkney tells how Vikings broke into the mound but found that it had already been looted long before. They left graffiti inside.

Medieval church of St. Magnus, Eglisay.

Amazing photograph showing the local farmhouse type, which is of Norse origin.

Some of the local sheep, which have adapted to eat a lot of seaweed.

Windfarm. Orkney is thriving right now, partly because electricity is cheaper there than anywhere else in Britain. There are lots of windfarms, there is tidal power, and there are not enough powerlines to get that energy to places that need it. Bad planning but nice for Orcadians.

Below, two lovely photographs by Ben Pentreath.


Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Trump's New Hiring Plan

The Trump administration has announced a "merit hiring plan." Of course this is partly an attack in DEI, but there is much more to it. The "key elements" are stated as follows:

  1. Reforming the Federal recruitment process to ensure that only the most talented, capable and patriotic Americans are hired to the Federal service;
  2. Implementing skills-based hiring, eliminating unnecessary degree requirements, and requiring the use of rigorous, job-related assessments to ensure candidates are selected based on their merit and competence, not their skin color or academic pedigree;
  3. Streamlining and improving the job application process; and
  4. Reducing time-to-hire to under 80 days by emphasizing the use of talent pools and shared certificates and streamlining the background check process.

The push to reduce degree requirements has been around for more than a decade now, and states like Florida and Texas have also tried to "elminate unnecessary degree requirements." People who have studied those state policies say, though, that while degrees may not be required, they are still a decisive advantage in actual hiring choices.

People who claim insider knowledge say that in part this is a deliberate attack on any kind of "disparate impact" standard. That legal doctrine made it hard to employ a variety of tests, because black people scored lower on them; the intent here is to bring back IQ testing and civil service exams. Again, this is framed in part as an attack on education credentials, but people who have been to college score much higher on such tests, so that aim will not be achieved.

I think the assumption is that this process will help white people, but that is almost certainly not true; if they really hire by test results and patriotism, Hmong and Filipino immigrants will stomp all over white applicants.

The plan has goals, of course, which are mostly nebulous. But these two stand out:

  1. Prioritize recruitment of individuals committed to improving the efficiency of the Federal government, passionate about the ideals of our American republic, and committed to upholding the rule of law and the United States Constitution;
  2. Prevent the hiring of individuals based on their race, sex, or religion, and prevent the hiring of individuals who are unwilling to defend the Constitution or to faithfully serve the Executive Branch;
I would say that at present it is absolutely impossible to both "faithfully serve the Executive Branch" and "uphold the United States Constitution," and I think I know which the administration really cares about.

There still seem to be some DOGE folks around, giving us goals like:
Integrate modern technology to support the recruitment and selection process, including the use of data analytics to identify trends, gaps, and opportunities in hiring, as well as leveraging digital platforms to improve candidate engagement.

I am very much in favor of changing the Federal hiring process. It is woefully bureaucratic, intensely political, and otherwise broken. Many Federal jobs are advertised only for applicants already working for the agency in question – this is true for all National Park Service archaeology jobs beyond "Archaeology Intern" – but that isn't necessarily because they want to exclude outsiders. The process of advertising an "open" position and reviewing all the applicants it would draw is just so cumbersome that nobody has time for it. Even if the posting is limited to internal applicants jobs can still take a year to fill.

A shared background check process would also be a huge boon, especially if it were publicized so that job applicants would know what documentation they're going to need.

I think we can see here both the promise and the huge problem with the Trump administration. There is a willingness to make changes, and the government could use a lot of changes. There is a glee in tossing out racial preferences, which are highly unpopular with Americans. There is a lot of rhetoric about replacing political intrigue with the pursuit of excellence.

But who believes them? I don't. I think their motives are entirely political, and none of them give a damn about how the government actually works. Because of this, they have no incentive, and no ability, to work through the hard problem of government reform. Once they have achieved their basic goal of ending anything that smacks of anti-white bias, they will lose interest and move on to something else that will get more clicks and likes from their fans.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Helping Others

Studies show (!) that helping others is the best way to help yourself:

A growing body of literature suggests that prosocial behavior, or behavior intended to help others, benefits well-being. However, modern society often places a greater emphasis on self-focused acts in the pursuit of well-being. To understand the effects of these differing forms of kindness (to others or the self), we conducted a 2-week intervention study of a community sample during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Participants were randomly assigned to a prosocial (other-kindness), self-kindness, or control condition, and those in the active conditions were asked to perform three acts of kindness each week. Of those who completed the intervention (N = 777), we found that participants in the other-kindness (vs. control) group experienced significant decreases in depression, anxiety, and loneliness from pre- to postintervention, offering compelling evidence for the mental health benefits of prosocial behavior. Furthermore, we found that participants in the self-kindness (vs. control) group experienced significant decreases in depression, but no differences in anxiety and loneliness. While the self-kindness group reported experiencing more positive feelings during their acts of kindness, the other-kindness group felt more connected. Exploratory mediation analyses revealed that, for the prosocial group, the effect of condition on depression, anxiety, and loneliness was mediated by increases in feelings of social connection, whereas for the self-kindness group, the effect of condition on depression was mediated by increases in positive feelings. Overall, these findings reaffirm the benefits of prosocial behavior on well-being and suggest unique pathways to mental health benefits for these two forms of kindness.

I personally find that cultivating generosity and compassion puts me in a much better mood than thinking selfishly or indulging in rancor. The really nasty people I have known all seem very unhappy to me.

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Links 29 August 2025

Landscape interventions by Finnish artist Annti Laitinen. Above, Broken Landscape VI.

Heavens Doorways, a fun Tumblr featuring pictures of doors and windows.

Utter confusion about what happened in the Alaska meeting between Trump and Putin.

Scott Siskind on AI psychosis, internet psychosis, and other psychoses.

A long Tweet about the war within the conservative movement between the "post-liberals" – people like Deneen and Pappin who are focused on religious and moral issues – and economic libertarians. The author says the post-liberals are trying to drive economists out of the conservative movement.

Review of Buddha, Socrates, and Us, a new book by Stephen Batchelor, who is a scholar of both Buddhism and western philosophy. Sounds interesting. Incidentally the author of the review is Costica Bradatan (aka Costică Brădăţan, but bookstore search engines can't cope with the diacriticals), a Romanian American philosopher; since I have loved all the little essays and reviews of his I have stumbled onto I just went and ordered one of his books. 

Long but very interesting essay on Shulamith Firestone, who was briefly an icon of second wave feminism before descending into paranoid schizophrenia. She had many friends who tried to help her, but "a mental patient, like an alcoholic, is endlessly cunning when it comes to subverting salvation, and Shulamith Firestone was one of the best."

Interview with a scholar who thinks democracy has ruined American education.

Large British study finds that while trans youths do have mental health problems, they do not have a particularly high suicide rate.

Scott Sumner's final blog post at EconLog is a plea for integrity in government.

NY Times feature on New Orleans, which received more than $100 billion in outside funding after Hurricane Katrina but still somehow never recovered. My then employers were involved in this, and one issue was a conflict over vision. FEMA's general plan for flood recovery is to buy people out of the low-lying areas and move them to higher ground, but in New Orleans the low-lying areas are black and the high ground is mostly white, and the politicians said we're not signing onto a plan that invests in white neighborhoods while telling black residents to move on. So from the beginning there was no plan. But the authors of this essay are still talking about "equity" and ignoring geography, so the next time this happens the same fight will happen all over again.

A claim that Medicare delivers very small value to the people who receive it (Twitter/X). Obviously this is a hard number to calculate, but we have long known that the US spends an enormous amount on medical care for the dying, some of whom would probably rather be left to die in peace.

Large Bronze Age hoard found in Germany, likely related to three daggers found nearby in 1900.

I did not know that single men earn the same amount as women; the gender pay gap is entirely about how much married men earn. (Twitter/X) This is partly because they work more hours than anyone else.

For decades, Polish migration to Germany has been a major economic factor in Germany and a political irritant. But recently the rate turned negative, with more Poles moving back to Poland than going the other way.

In 2024, Barbados had 1,995 births and 3,008 deaths. We don't know about some other Caribbean island nations because they have stopped releasing these numbers. (Twitter/X)

St. Cristopher used to be depicted fairly often with a dog's head.

Re-reading Moby Dick at 58, Ahab's age.

New study finds that the first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine reduced Covid mortality among the elderly by more than 50%. Via Marginal Revolution.

A philosopher ponders the eventual death of the universe, besides its general tendency to make things difficult rather than easy.

Huge lightning flash from 2017 is confirmed as the longest on record.

Tree fall in the Amazon reveals seven pre-Columbian funeral urns unlike anything I have seen from the region.

This week's past post is Dissatisfaction with Democracy in an Anti-Racist Age, from 2021.

Labor Day Garden





Above, the seeds of my blackberry lilies, showing how they got their name.

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Global Fertility Map





The Witches of Orkney

I have been studying the European witchcraft persecutions for more than 40 years, and I have never read anything on the subject more enlightening than one amazing chapter of Peter Marshall's Storm's Edge: Life, Death and Magic in the Islands of Orkney (2024). This vast book is a detailed (sometimes too detailed) history of Orkney from 1468, when it passed from the Kingdom of Norway to the Kingdom of Scotland as part of a marriage settlement, to the early 1800s. Marshall is deeply learned in the history, language, folklore, geography and documents of Orkney, and his broad expertise is part of what makes his treatment of witch cases so compelling. I highly recommend this 48-page chapter.

I want to dwell here on two particular cases. There is an idea out there that there "were no witches," that is, that the people burned at the stake were just unfortunates caught up in a malignant system. There is a monument in Kirkwall today on the spot where many witches were strangled and burned, and it bears the words "They were cheust folk": they were just people. However, this was not always true. Yes, when the big panics got going and accused witches were tortured until they named their accomplices, anyone could be condemned. But so far as we can tell, most accused witches were people widely reputed to have magical powers, and some of them absolutely did try to harm their neighbors with black magic.

The magic of Orkney, like everything else about the islands, was drawn in part from their Norse past. During the period of the persecution, the 1500s and 1600s, English and Scots were gradually replacing Orkney's old Norse dialect, but the magical formulas that come down to us were mostly in Norn. The witches often spoke of "going with the good wights." The word "wights" is usually rendered into modern English as "fairies," and of course the grim ministers of the Reformation Kirk translated it "demons." But it seems to denote a unique class of beings more like Norse trolls than British fairies. Marshall believes that people "went with" the wights in dreams or trance, and we do have some accounts of meeting them in dreams, but I suspect people thought they could be met in the physical world as well.

This brings us to Oliver Leask, a man who was condemned in 1616 after what looks like a very long career as a healer, enchanter, thief, extortionist, and expert on the spirit world:

Leask's modus operandi involved travelling around, begging money, food, and drink, and making veiled threats when his requests were denied. That he continued in this manner for so long suggests a reluctance to tangle with those thought to possess magical powers. Not everyone complied. During 'bere seed time', Leask  came to John Craigie's farm at Swandale, on the east side of Rousay, 'boasterously' demanding grain. When Craigie refused, bitter words ensued, and Least got a blow from 'the shaft of the Clodmell' – a large mallet for greaking up clods of earth. Since that time, Craigie had found 'ane great number of his horses and beasts all dead.' (192)

One woman responded to Leask's threats by saying, 'If God be with me, what can ye do to me?' Leask answered that he could harm her whether God was with her or not. Leask was also a healer, and one of the charges against him concerned a time when he heard that a wealthy man was sick and travelled a long distance to offer his services as magical physician. Leask was found guilty of witchcraft, but the jury also declared that he was insane, so he avoided the death penalty. Which raises another interesting question: was Leask crazy? If so, what was the relationship between his mental illness and his career as a sorceror? Consider the way he lived, homeless, wandering the islands begging for his keep while believing that he had great magical powers: does that not seem a bit mad? There is a strong association between shamanism and lunacy in many cultures, so it would not be surprising if it existed in 17th-century Orkney

Leask sometimes used an alias, 'Walliman.' This was no ordinary name, but an old word for sorceror likely derived from the Norse völva. Sort of like calling yourself 'Warlock.' And this brings us to our next case, which I find even more interesting. Jonet Rendall was condemned in 1629 for a long bill of charges stretching back 20 years, the most damning of which was regularly consorting with the devil:

Her acquaintance with the Devil began two decades earlier, 'above the hill of Rendall' – somewhere along the windy ridge joining the summits of Hackland, Enyas and Gorseness Hills. . . Satan arrived at a vulnerable moment: Jonet had 'sought charity and could not have it'. He made her an offer, and though the dittay [bill of charges] uses the theological language of a 'pact', the Devil does not seem to have demanded anything in return. He promised to 'learn you to win alms by healing of folk, and whosoever should give you alms should be the better either by land or sea. And those that gave you no alms should not be healed . . . whatever you craved to befall them should befall." Despite this promise of vengeance on the mean-fisted, Satan, it appears, wanted to make Jonet Rendall into a magical healer.

It was, however, the prosecutor who identifiedthe mysterious figure 'clad in white clothes, with ane white head and ane grey beard' as the Devil. Jonet had her own name for him: Walliman. It seems very likely that her life-changing encounter was with a human not a supernatural being: the showman-warlock Oliver Leask, whose professional technique was precisely as described in the offer to Jonet, and who frequented this part of Orkney in the first decade of the seventeenth century. (199)

If Marshall is right, this case is a very important one, because one of the things we know the least about such cunning folk is how they learned their trades. 

It also looks to me like Jonet Rendall shared something else with Leask, a weak grasp on sanity:

If Jonet Rendall learned her secrets of curing and cursing from Oliver Leask, their last meeting must have been prior to Leask's banishment in the spring of 1616. In the succeeding years, he evidently assumed in her mind a more than human status. Jonet's confession spoke of 'praying to Walliman', and in admitting nearly all the charges she emphasised his power rather than hers: 'Walliman took away the profit of the ky'; 'Walliman slew the mares.' (200)

One of the charges against Jonet raises other important themes:

In 1621, Andro Matches of Sundiehous in Hackland Denounced Joney to the sheriff after losing the profit of his milk. Nine months later, he took complaint to the Evie Kirk Session. Matches was clearly unusual in his willingness to cause trouble for Jonet; a few days later, she remonstrated with him for 'always dealing with and complaining' of her, and said he would repent it.

Sure enough, three days later, Andro went out of his wits. His wife's reaction may seem curious to us, but is one commonly met with both in Orkney and elsewhere: she sent for the woman she believed to have cursed her husband. As soon as Jonet arrived, Andro began to feel better, and Jonet was rewarded with a plate of meat. Before tasting it, she spat three times over her left shoulder, and Andro's wife, 'fearing ye had been doing more evil,' spring forward to strike her. 'Let me alone,' Joney snapped, 'for your goodman will be well.'

The image of Andro's anxious wife, unsure if she was witnessing a ritual of healing or harming, captures the uneasy relationship between those who knew how to work magic and those who were eager to benefit from its effects. People in the farms of the West Mainland put up with Jonet's presence because she offered useful services and because they were afraid of her.

I believe that Europe was full of such characters throughout the medieval and early modern periods, and quite likely going much farther back in time. But we can know few of them in the wonderful way Peter Marshall helps us to know Oliver Leask and Jonet Rendall.

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Hampton National Historic Site

I finally made it to Baltimore County's most famous historical monument, Hampton Mansion. The property is now run by the National Park Service.

The main house was constructed in 1783 to 1790 by Captain Charles Ridgely, one of the richest men in America; when finished, this may have been the largest private house in the new nation. The design is supposed to have been inspired by Howard Castle. Famous guest include Charles Carroll and the Marquis de Lafayette.

The Captain was the second of seven Ridgelys to own the property, a run that extended from 1745 to 1948. Their money came from farming – at one point the estate was 10,000 acres – stone quarries, and the iron business. They had iron ore mines, coal mines, and a furnace, which is now under Loch Raven Reservoir but peaks out at low water.

View of the house from the rear, up from the terraced garden.

Plan of the property made in 1843, recording many now-vanished buildings.

Eliza Ridgely posing with a harp in 1818, by Thomas Sully.

What really fascinated me about the place was the outbuildings, most of them built of stone in an identical style. I had to look these up to figure out that they were the stables; why are they so tall?

Even the random sheds are lovely.

Fascinating Dairy, dug into the ground over a spring. Water flowing through the sunken room cooled the milk.

This strange building has at least four sections built at different times, one of which may have been standing on the property when the Ridgelys bought it in 1745. After the mansion was built this served as the overseer's residence.

View of the farm complex. The overseer's house is to the left, and the stone buildings to the right are slave quarters built around 1850. They are eerily similar to the ones John Custis had built at Arlington in Virginia.

The Quarters from the northeast.

Ruined greenhouses. A delightful place to explore.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Robert Frost, "Villanelle of the Circus Villains"

A "villanelle", in 19th-century poetic parlance, was a very structured 19-line form based on Italian popular song; the first and third lines must repeat in a standard pattern. Many modern poets have tried their hand at them, but of those I have read, this is my favorite.

Head toward the exit if you can.
Smiling, pointing at the dollar seats,
we crawled beneath the tent. They pulled us in,

gave us candy bars, red paper fans,
free soda pop, though we were clearly cheats.
Head toward the exit if you can.

We tried to leave it, once the show began,
ducked below the bleachers and the feet.
We crawled beneath the tent. They pulled us in.

The players caught us even though we ran,
Gave us better places and more sweets.
Head toward the exit if you can.

They masked us, made us join the caravan
to ride their cycles, wheeling in dead heat.
We crawled beneath the tent. They pulled us in.

The circus is on fire to a man.
The band is clowning out some new retreats.
Head toward the exit if you can.
We crawled beneath the tent. They pulled us in.

1924

The Italian Chapel

After the medieval cathedral in Kirkwall, the most visited religious site in the Orkneys is probably a small metal church on the uninhabited island of Lamb Holm. This little place was built in 1942-1945 by Italian prisoners of war.

One of the Royal Navy's main anchorages during both World Wars was Scapa Flow, a huge natural harbor in the Orkneys north of Scotland. The British thought they had closed all the subsidiary entrances to the harbor using sunken ships and other barriers. But on the night of October 14, 1939, a daring U-Boat captain named Günther Prien steered his vessel through the barriers and sank the battleship Royal Oak as it rode at anchor. Among the 835 men killed were so many teenage boys that the Admiralty was obliged by Parliamentary pressure to limit the number of such youngsters deployed on warships at sea. 

Then First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill ordered the construction of an elaborate system of causeways and obstacles that were called the Churchill Barriers.

Among the more than 2,000 men who labored on the barriers were 550 Italians who had been captured in North Africa. Sometime during 1943 their priest convinced the British commandant of their camp that these men needed a place of worship.

Wikipedia:

The chapel was constructed from limited materials by the prisoners in the form of a tin tabernacle, and comprises two Nissen huts [Quonset huts to Americans] joined end-to-end. The corrugated interior was then covered with plasterboard and the altar and altar rail were constructed from concrete left over from work on the barriers. Most of the interior decoration was done by Domenico Chiocchetti, a prisoner from Moena in Trentino, northern Italy. He painted the sanctuary end of the chapel and fellow prisoners decorated the entire interior. They created a facade out of concrete, concealing the shape of the hut and making the building look like a church. The light holders were made out of corned beef tins. The baptismal font was made from the inside of a car exhaust covered in a layer of concrete.

Funny that a bunch of male POWs thougt they needed a baptismal font; I guess it was in their minds an essential part of any church.


The church was still unfinished at the end of the war, but some of the Italians returned to complete the job; others participated in the restorations of the 1960s and 1990s. If you are wondering why the British were so accomodating to these former POWs, it is the same in the US; there are several old buildings on US military bases that are considered historic because they once housed Italian POWs, and I have been told that for old soldiers to return, often with their families, was routine into the 1990s. The switch of Italy from enemy to key NATO ally – without the Nazi stain that hung over the Germans – changed those men into comrades, and much was done to make their returns pleasant.

What a remarkable thing to stand on this tiny island, a monument to human resilience, faith, and the peace that some enemies are able to make with each other.

Friday, August 22, 2025

Karl Polanyi, "The Great Transformation"

The Great Transformation, published in 1944, still has a huge following both inside and outside academia. Economists, sociologists, and political scientists all cite Polanyi regularly; I have seen it asserted that the only author more often cited by social scientists is Foucault. But this book also gets cited in random debates on Twitter/X and in YouTube comment wars. Its fans are people looking for a different way to understand 19th- and 20th-century history. Surely, a certain sort of intellectual or pseudo-intellectual thinks, there must be some other angle on these events, some deeper tide, some key that unlocks what seems so mysterious: the way Europe built an astonishing civilization and then ripped it to shreds. In this book, Polyani tried to explain that astonishing history. 

Karl Polyani (1886-1964) sprang from the world of rich, German-speaking Hungarian Jews that gave the 20th century so many of its iconic thinkers. He was involved in left-wing democratic politics, what we would now call Social Democracy or the center left. He served in the Austrian cavalry during World War I and was wounded on the battlefield. After the war he returned to politics, but when Hungary was convulsed, first by communist revolution, then the semi-fascist Horthy dictatorship, Polanyi fled to Vienna. From which he fled to Britain in 1934. Despite throwing himself into the study of British economic history – the The Great Transformation displays an astounding level of knowledge about things like the Poor Law debates of the 1660s – as a foreigner and a Jew he was never able to find an academic post. So in 1940 he moved to the US, teaching first at Bennington and then at Columbia. But his wife, who had been a member of the Hungarian communist party, was not able to get a US visa, so he divided his time between New York and Canada, where she lived.

The way Polanyi saw the world in 1940 is perhaps best explained by the lectures he gave at Bennington College when he first arrived there. The first one begins like this:

The subject matter of these lectures is a vast and unique event: the passing of 19th-century civilization in the short period that elapsed between the first and second wars of the 20th century. At the begging of this period, 19th-century ideals were paramount, indeed their influence had never been greater; by its close hardly anything was left of that system under which our type of society had risen to world leadership. Within national frontiers representative democracy had been safe-guarding a regime of liberty, and the national well-being of all civilized nations had been immeasurably increased under the sway of liberal capitalism; the balance of power had secured a comparative freedom from long and devastating wars, while the gold standard had become the solid foundation of a vast system of economic cooperation on an almost planetary scale. Although the world was far from perfect, it seemed well on the way towards perfection. Suddenly this unique edifice collapsed; the very conditions under which our society existed passed forever. The task which faces us in the present cannot, we believe, be understood except in the light of this tremendous event. It is both national and international, political and economic – all our institutions are involved.

The historian hardly knows where to start.
But while a generic "historian" might not have known where to start, Polanyi did: with the creation of the free market in goods, land, and labor. He dated this precisely to the 1830s, in England. As he shows at some length, the free movement of workers was curtailed in Britain and France by Poor Laws dating to the 1500s. These laws provided that each parrish had to provide food and housing for its own indigent people, and try to find work for the unemployed. These measures worked to the extent that they (most of the time) prevented homelessness and starvation, but they had horribly distorting effects on the careers of workers. They also kept most workers close to home, since they had a safety net within their home parrish but none anywhere else. 

Polanyi was as well read in anthropology as in history, and he understood that in most premodern societies markets played a very limited role. Most economic activity was embedded within social relations, with trade taking place between people who were relatives or neighbors or had some traditional, well-defined connection to each other. Everything David Graeber ever wrote about what village economies were actually like, which he tended to phrase as a radical attack on the economic mainstream, was much better explained by Polanyi. So Polanyi understood that the Poor Laws of early modern Europe were just one expression of ancient ways of thinking about work, time, neighborhood, obligation, and much more. 

When the British Poor Law was repealed in 1834 – by the first Parliament elected after the great 1832 reform handed power to the urban middle class – Britain embarked on a brave new economic world. Polanyi wrote that these reforms meant

the running of society as an adjunct to the market. Instead of economy being embedded in social relations, social relations are embedded in the economic system. (57)

As Polanyi noted, this political change was accompanied by new economic thinking. The creators of neo-classical economics, from Adam Smith to Karl Marx, thought that economics was governed by impersonal laws. There was, to this way of thinking, not much governments or people could do about economic conditions, because they respond, not to our desires, but to these impersonal, implacable laws. Attempts at meddling could only damage the machine, not improve it.

Polanyi came from a family of wealthy manufacturers, and he fully understood the power of the factory system. Everything he said against capitalism was prefaced by extensive observations on how much richer Europe and the average European grew between 1834 and 1914. This is something missed, I think, by some of his admirers, especially on the anarchist left. Polanyi had no interest in going back to the pre-modern world.

But though free markets in labor and goods launched a fantastic surge of wealth, they lasted only a few decades before governments began to pass limits on them. Already in the 1870s Britain and France passed many anti-market laws: unemployment relief, tariffs to protect key industries, and so on. One that Polanyi focuses on is what we call Workers' Compensation, the requirement that employers pay for the health care of employees injured on the job, and support them while they recover. Such laws were passed across much of Europe within a period of less than ten years.

Polanyi called this dialectic, the surging power of free industry and the corresponding attempts to limit its harm, a "double movement." This was the inevitable result, he thought, of an economic system that was outside of society rather than embedded in social relations. On the one hand, markets made us rich, but on the other hand, by abstracting work and trade from the community, they took away the supporting structures, both financial and emotional, that buoyed up people's lives, which required governments (of any party) to step in and support workers and their families.

Polanyi was an internationalist and he was very interested in trade. The longest chapter in The Great Transformation covers the establishment of the gold standard and its eventual collapse. The idea behind the gold standard was simple: regulate international currency exchange by requiring that each nation be willing and able to swap its own currency for gold at a published rate. But no nation actually had enough gold reserves to cover all of its bank notes, which rendered the whole system vulnerable to what amounted to runs on the bank. All governments, therefore, whether of the right or the left, had to put the stability of the currency at the center of their policies. Any false step could unsettle the currency: too much spending, too little spending, too high a deficit, too much taxation. All governments found themselves boxed in by the money markets and unable to respond to the needs of their people. Some governments therefore abandoned the gold standard after WW I, and the rest did when the Depression struck. But that introduced even more uncertainty into international trade.

In the 1940s Polanyi thought the era of free markets and free trade was over. He looked forward to societies oriented more toward the needs of the people than those of the market, and he is sometimes a considered a prophet of postwar social democracy in Europe. But I suspect he would have been suprised by the continuing vitality of capitalism in our time. He seemed to think that the "double movement" rendered all market-based systems inherently unstable, so that the collapse of the European system after WW I was inevitable. And it may well be that market economies are unstable, and that managing one  really does box governments into narrow policy ranges. But over the past 70 years our technical and organizational creativity has been sufficient to keep the economy booming, giving us pretty nice lives. The alternate system Polanyi imagined, which would put the economy back within the boundaries of social relations, has never come to pass, and I have never seen any convincing formula for making it happen.

We seem to be stuck with markets and with the discontent they breed.

Links 22 August 2025

French postcard, 1913

Alex Tabarrok with an American economic manifesto.

Matt Yglesias: "Trump is doing the part of socialism where you destroy the economy's long-term potential with central planning, but skipping the part where you take care of the poor and the sick."

Turning a nineteenth-century island fortress into a modern party venue.

Thread on class and air conditioning in Germany, or, The Anti A/C Jihad.

Robin Hanson on the orbiting "glints" that some think are evidence of aliens. I find it pathetic that so many people take anything they don't understand and say, "it must be aliens."

An AI system comes up with an idea for improving the sensitivity of a major experiment in physics: "Initially, the AI’s designs seemed outlandish. The outputs . . . were too complicated, and they looked like alien things or AI things. Just nothing that a human being would make, because it had no sense of symmetry, beauty, anything. It was just a mess."

The fight over M dashes and AI writing. I have an intense personal relationship with the M dash, because when I write quickly I use too many dashes or other ways of breaking up the text, and then if I want it to sound good I go back and smooth things out. Very few sentences read better with dashes in them, and my advice would be to use them very seldom.

Long but interesting review of the Peruvian play Ollantay, which may be either a Spanish fantasy about Indians or a Spanish rendering of a Quechua tradition. From Scott Siskind's "Review Anything" contest.

Long article on "Alpha School,"an educational program based on AI tutors that makes great claims for itself. Summary at Marginal Revolution. Can be compared to the even longer review of Alpha School from Siskind's contest.

New work from Antony Gormley, playing with big wooden blocks and human forms. Earlier work here.

Dirty Dick's, a famous and famously weird London pub.

Story of one of the black women drawn to Jim Jones' cult; before the apocalypse the point of Jonestown was supposed  to be an anti-racist socialist utopia.

An entrant in the competition for "most epic domino crash ever."

Ukraine's new FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile, range 3,000 km, claimed production rate 1/day. Twitter/X, wikipedia.

Monday, August 18, 2025

People Thinking that Everything is Bad, Part N

Some masked federal agents in DC yesterday refused to give their names or even say what agency they worked for. This exchange followed:

Bystander: "You guys are ruining this country, you know that, right?" Agent: "Liberals already ruined it."

I see this kind of stuff constantly now. Some people defend Trump and say he is making things great. But many – more, in the stuff that makes it into my feeds – respond to any criticism with "it's no worse than Obama" or "it's what liberals deserve for what they did" or "Trump can't wreck the economy it's already wrecked" and so on.

In particular, any suggestion that Trump is notably corrupt gets a lot of "you're another" responses. I recently said something to an acquaintance about Trumpian criminality and he responded, "So long as people in Congress can trade stocks they're all insider traders who should be in prison." Many Americans believe that the government has been for sale for decades, if not centuries, and the Democrats are just mad because Trump is better at it.

The awfulness of America in this moment is downstream from a widespread sense that things have been so awful for so long that complaining about particular awful acts is a pointless waste of time.

Newsom has a Chance in 2028

From an unofficial Newsom-linked Twitter/X account:

MANY PEOPLE ARE SAYING — AND I AGREE — THAT I, GAVIN C. NEWSOM (AMERICA’S FAVORITE GOVERNOR) DESERVE THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE. WHY? BECAUSE OF THE “MOST INCREDIBLE MAPS IN THE HISTORY OF MAPPING” (EVEN COLUMBUS). THESE MAPS WILL END THE “VERY RIGGED” ELECTIONS, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN (MAGA!!!), RETAKE CONGRESS “FOR THE PEOPLE”, AND SAVE DEMOCRACY. NOBODY ELSE COULD HAVE DONE THIS — CERTAINLY NOT THE “SELF-PROCLAIMED” MASTER DEALMAKER DONALD “TACO” TRUMP (TINY HANDS) WHO MISSED “THE DEADLINE” AND LOST (SAD!). PEACE THROUGH MAPS — NO ONE HAS EVER THOUGHT OF THIS BEFORE. I AM THE “PEACE TIME” GOVERNOR NOW, STOPPING “POLITICAL WARS” BEFORE THEY START. HARMONY, UNITY, EVEN LOVE. THE NOBEL COMMITTEE HAS GIVEN THIS AWARD TO LESSER PEOPLE FOR MUCH LESS. I, GAVIN C. NEWSOM, ACTUALLY EARNED IT. THE WORLD WILL BE SAFER, KINDER, AND FRANKLY MORE “BEAUTIFUL” BECAUSE OF MY MAPS. GIVE GAVIN THE NOBEL, MANY ARE SAYING. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — GCN

Slavery, Complicity, and US Economic Growth

Those Americans determined to find nothing but misery and wickedness in our past like to say things like this:

The white folks who did not personally own slaves gleefully participated in the economy and white supremacy created by slavery. Slavery turned America into an economic superpower. That is indisputable.

But as far as the last statement goes, most economic historians very much do dispute it. First, the US was not an "economic superpower" until a generation after the abolition of slavery. And, the real engines of US growth seem to have little to do with slavery or plantation agriculture:

One central issue is that much historical writing conflates complicity with slavery—for example, routinely engaging in business with slaveholders, including transactions that facilitated slaveholding and the domestic slave trade—with national economic impact. Complicity with slavery was indeed widespread in the free states. Indifference to the enslaved status of southern labor was more the rule than the exception among northern shippers, manufacturers, and financial firms. Further, such groups often supported slaveholder interests in national politics, fearful that turmoil over slavery would disrupt economic activity. However, accounts of the sources of US economic growth in the nineteenth-century suggest that slavery and the shift of the slave-owning South to cotton production early in the century had relatively little effect on growth for the nation as a whole. The southern economy shared in the growth acceleration, expanding lands committed to cotton production and raising labor productivity in the process. But the deeper sources of long-run US economic growth were improvements in technology, internal transportation, finance, and education, and the slave-owning South lagged in all of these areas. A simple summary of these patterns might be this: Slavery enriched slave-owners, but impoverished the southern region and did little to boost the US economy as a whole. 
Which is not to say that slavery was not, in certain situations, economically productive; I have written here before about the advantages that large plantations had in sweet-scented tobacco production, for example. The spread of plantations worked by slaves or indentured laborers is one of the great themes of the colonial era, and a driving force of the first global economy. But when they look in detail at the specific question of what made the US rich, most economists do not think slavery was helpful. If slavery made countries rich, then Brazil and Jamaica should have been richer than North America, and they were not. South Carolina should have been richer than New England, and it very much was not. Worldwide, economists find a very strong association between a free, mobile labor force and modern economic growth. Think about it this way: when left-wing historians write about the spread of plantations across Africa and Asia, they usually assume that the main beneficiaries were, not people in those countries, but European merchants; so why does anyone think that the spread of plantations across North America was a big benefit to North Americans? Other than the plantation owners, that is.

The biggest contribution of plantation agricultue to the US economy was growing cotton, but cotton production did not fall after the end of slavery.

I am not a big fan of mathematical economic counterfacturals, but FWIW when economists rerun the history of the US without slavery they find that the nation would have been richer in 1860, not poorer. Africans made a huge contribution just by being here and working, but the (lousy) numbers show that they would have added even more had they been free.

My own view is that Lincoln was elected partly because people in the North were feeling less and less connection to or dependence on the slave economy of the South, and therefore less inclination to compromise with the South politically. The energy in the North was in railroads, steel, and the ever-expanding wheat lands of the old Northwest. Northern businessmen viewed the plantations as an old-fashioned drag on their modernizing commercial and industrial world, and modern economic historians agree.

Sunday, August 17, 2025

A Discussion about Intelligence

I attended a discussion last night focused on the question, "What is Intelligence?" Nine people attended, three of whom work in AI. 

We started from a very simple definition: that intelligence is that ability to take in information and use it to generate some result, that is, information processing. By this definition, of course, all sorts of things are intelligent, from hand-held calculators to trees. This was kicked around but most of us were willing to assign some degree of "intelligence" to very simple organisms and devices. For example, no one disputed that mice are intelligent.

One participant was focused on the notion that intelligence is inference, the ability to look at data and draw from it a conclusion that is not obviously present in the source. I get that this is a good way to think about what AI can and cannot do, but am not sure how it can really be distinguished from information processing at a fundamental level.

Incidentally it seems that when professionals think about the usefulness of LLMs, they regularly employ the "intern test." If you say, "LLMs are not smart, you can't even trust them to do X," somebody will reply "I would never trust an intern to do that."

There was some discussion of speed as a factor. Some people want to say that computers aren't smart, they are just fast, but as was pointed out we often use speed as a way of juding how intelligent things are. E.g., it took this dog an hour to learn this new trick, but it took that dog a month, so this one is smarter.

One of my favorite questions got discussed: can you say that something is intelligent from the outside, based solely on its output, or do you want to posit some internal state of mind? E.g., some people say that while an LLM can produce what looks like intelligent output, it is not truly intelligent, because it has no understanding. It can search for words, but it does not think. In a related point, someone mentioned the ideas of a philosopher who, in thinking about intelligence, assigns much importance to the sense of self; would you call something intelligent that has no idea that it even exists? 

You can see the importance of that last question with regard to vast, vague systems. When we were talking about the ability of fungi to solve mazes, I said, in that case would you want to say that the intelligence resides, not in the fungus, but in the evolutionary system that created it? I mean, we couldn't even make a single dog, but evolution has made a thousand different kinds of dogs, besides all the other stuff. But there was a lot of reluctance to assign "intelligence" to evolution.

This relates to the question of goals; people are often unwilling to assign intelligence to AI, because it cannot set its own goals. But if the goals of, say, a mouse are set by evolution, how is that different from humans assigning goals to AI?

The AI people were focused on two points that I found interesting. First, there is the "Lookup Table" problem. If your system is just using its ultra-fast processor to look up answers in a huge database, most people would not consider that intelligent. It was generally agreed that IBM's old Deep Blue chess program was not intelligent, because it was basically just looking up situations and moves in its database. This is akin, of course, to the old Chinese Room problem, and I found it a good sign for the status of our civilization that nobody felt any need to debate the Chinese Room.

The second point was about the complexity of the algorithm. The history of AI is full of systems that seemed intelligent, in limited circumstances, but turned out to be employing very simple algorithmic tricks. LLMs, by contrast, are highly complex, so much so that we often have no idea how they do what they do. Human brains are astonishingly complex. Should that be part of our definition of intelligence? One way to think about this is "compressibility": what is the shortest statement, in language or computer code or whatever, that could describe the operations of a brain or device? Do we want to say that any truly intelligent system should be too complex to be fully described in a simple way?

But in that case, someone said, are you putting the emphasis on mystery, saying that only systems we don't understand should be considered intelligent? Someone else said, yes, absolutely, if superintelligent aliens showed up who found it very easy to describe how our brains work, they would not consider us intelligent.

On the whole it was a fine way to spend two hours on a weekend evening, maybe not as much fun as a really great movie, but much better than a mediocre one.