Secretary Gates on war

After the first Bush term, one got the impression that there was no wisdom or even sense left in the conservative establishment. One man more than any other has helped to bring American military policy, in Iraq and elsewhere, back toward sanity, and that is Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. From his latest speech:

BALANCE

The defining principle driving our strategy is balance. I note at the outset that balance is not the same as treating all challenges as having equal priority. We cannot expect to eliminate risk through higher defense budgets, to, in effect "do everything, buy everything."

LIMITS & MODESTY

First, limits about what the United States - still the strongest and greatest nation on earth - can do. The power of our military's global reach has been an indispensable contributor to world peace - and must remain so. But not every outrage, every act of aggression, every crisis can or should elicit an American military response, and we should acknowledge such.

Be modest about what military force can accomplish, and what technology can accomplish. The advances in precision, sensor, information and satellite technology have led to extraordinary gains in what the U.S. military can do. The Taliban dispatched within three months, Saddam's regime toppled in three weeks. Where a button is pushed in Nevada and seconds later a pickup truck explodes in Mosul. Where a bomb destroys the targeted house on the right, leaving intact the one on the left.

But also never neglect the psychological, cultural, political, and human dimensions of warfare, which is inevitably tragic, inefficient, and uncertain. Be skeptical of systems analysis, computer models, game theories, or doctrines that suggest otherwise. Look askance at idealized, triumphalist, or ethnocentric notions of future conflict that aspire to upend the immutable principles of war: where the enemy is killed, but our troops and innocent civilians are spared. Where adversaries can be cowed, shocked, or awed into submission, instead of being tracked down, hilltop by hilltop, house by house, block by bloody block.

And here Gates dismisses the fear of Iran, Russia and China that is the main plank of McCain's platform and, I am sorry to say, too big a part of Obama's:

...the recent past vividly demonstrated the consequences of failing adequately to address the dangers posed by insurgencies or failing states. Terrorist networks can find sanctuary within the borders of a weak nation and strength within the chaos of social breakdown. A nuclear-armed state could collapse into chaos, and criminality. Let's be honest with ourselves. The most likely catastrophic threats to our homeland - for example, an American city poisoned or reduced to rubble by a terrorist attack - are more likely to emanate from failing states than from aggressor states.

This is the kind of thinking we need more of. Yes, the world is dangerous, but that doesn't mean unlimited defense budgets (Obama and McCain are both calling for more defense spending), because defense must be balanced against all of our other priorities, and it doesn't mean responding aggressively to every possible threat. Some "threats" are just not very dangerous (nobody, and I mean nobody, in China wants a war with the US) and most of the rest are well within our capability to deal with.

I would like to see a major decrease in US military spending. I think our Navy is far too big -- according to some estimates, one US carrier battle group has more striking power than all of the other surface navies in the world combined -- our nuclear arsenal is far too big, and we could make do with smaller ground and air forces. I think we would do more to strengthen our nation by spending that money on education, or just not spending it all and bringing our budget into line with our means.

But, realistically, that is not likely to happen under an Obama administration. Obama is too careful and moderate a politician, and too worried about seeming weak on defense, to undertake a real draw-down. Perhaps if he successfully extricates us from Iraq in his first term he might try it in his second. I do hope he will slow the growth in defense spending, but that is about all I am hoping for any time soon.

But maybe an Obama administration could continue to promote the kind of thinking we see here from Gates, so that over the next decade the climate of fear in America will recede, the influence of the neocons will continue to decline, and both our defense spending and our aggressiveness can be brought under control.