Cuba Stumbles Toward Collapse

In communist Cuba, revolutionary fervor is short supply, and the country seems to be sliding toward being a gangster state like Russia. 

The wreckage of the Cuban economy really can’t be exaggerated. The perpetual blackouts are an apt symbol of a country that is headed for the dark ages. For the first time since the revolution, Cuba is begging the United Nations for food aid. Nearly half a million persons have fled the island in despair during the last two years—that’s 4% of the population, the equivalent of more than 12 million Americans. Yet the failure cascade is moving faster than the capacity to emigrate. People feel trapped and hopeless. The volcano is growling. Despite the words we use, national economies never actually implode—but the regimes that exploit and mismanage them often do.

The immediate cause of the crisis is that Cuba lacks foreign currency to pay for essential imports like oil. In an excellent article, Martin Gurri explains that a strange arrest provides a glimpse into what is going on:

On February 5, Mirtza Ocana, an American citizen of Cuban origin, arrived at Tampa International Airport from Havana and was arrested for attempting to smuggle more than $100,000 into the country. When questioned, Ocana confessed to having carried out 45 similar assignments since May 2023. The smuggling operation involved millions of dollars.

Who is smuggling all this badly needed cash out of Cuba? The regime itself:

Outwardly, nothing has changed. The worn-out slogans are still piously intoned. The Communist Party, with its repressive apparatus, still dodders on. Raúl Castro, 92, remains a shadowy but frightening presence. But new people are in charge of ruling a society that, top to bottom, has lost all faith in the system—and, as often happens in moments of exhausted zealotry, those who command power and resources want nothing more than to enjoy the good life and protect themselves against an uncertain future.

People keep hoping that things will change when Raoul Castro dies, but then people had the same hopes about the death of Fidel. I keep fantasizing that one day Cuba's people will rise up all together and the regime will collapse like a house of cards. It might happen, but I am not holding my breath.