Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Polling

Bloomberg has the latest polling news on the Presidential race:
Hillary Clinton holds a double-digit lead over Donald Trump, according to a new national poll.

The Democrat and former Secretary of State is ahead of Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, by 12 points, results of a new Bloomberg Politics poll show. Clinton leads Trump 49% to 37% among likely voters in November’s election.
But here's the real problem number for Trump:
The same poll found 55% of those surveyed said they could never vote for Trump.
So far this seems to be a real phenomenon, as Trump keeps doing things every week to remind people what a potential troublemaker he is. Three or four people in my neighborhood have put up yard signs that say, IDK Not Trump Tho. I live in the sort of moderate suburb that often ends up deciding elections, and if my non-Democrat neighbors can't support Trump that bodes poorly for him. I also read recently that Trump is polling so badly among Mormons that he and Hillary are neck and neck in Utah, of all places; since both Trump and Hillary only have 20% approval ratings in Utah, some people are speculating that Libertarian Gary Johnson might win the state. The Bloomberg poll also finds that Hillary's supporters are more enthusiastic about their candidate.

But then there's this reminder of how strange the American electorate can be:
However, the real estate mogul narrowly beats out Clinton 50% to 45% when those polled were asked which candidate is stronger in combatting terrorist threats at home and abroad.
Somehow, despite all the weirdness about him, Trump projects "strength," and that alone will get him millions of votes. And this:
Just 19% of those polled believe the U.S. is on the right track. Still, President Barack Obama’s job-approval rating stood at 51%.
That "right track/wrong track" question is one of the better predictors of how people will vote, and 19% positive is a terrible number for the incumbent party. But at least most people don't seem to be blaming it on the president.

3 comments:

Shadow Flutter said...

My fantasy:

Those who support Trump know him to be a clown (but a useful one), and the kind of businessman who uses then discards people like them all the time (Trump U). But they also want to send a message to the party, maybe even wreck it, so they vote for Trump in the primaries, but once nominated abandon him. The party implodes, and Trump becomes the biggest loser ever. (Remember how Trump has no use for losers?) Two birds with one stone.

To escape the unending ridicule of being the worst loser of all time, Trump takes an extended vacation outside the country (assuming there is another one that will take him -- the weakest link in my fantasy) and upon returning, the customs/immigration agent demands he state his religious affiliation.

Perfect

pithom said...

Don't post on bullshit polls.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/06/14/oh-my-gosh-about-that-bloomberg-presidential-poll/

Trump will probably win, especially if attacks like these keep happening.

G. Verloren said...

@pithom

So some openly biased conservative website no one's ever heard of is claiming that Bloomberg... one of the biggest, most prestigious, and highly successful international financial and anaylytic companies on the face of the planet, which has billions of dollars worth of self-interest incentive to predict these sorts of things as accurately as humanly possible... is secretly totally, completely wrong, and is probably even actually just making stuff up because: something, something 'liberal agenda'?

I think you're maybe been hitting the chemtrails a little hard lately. Might want to take it easy.

@Shadow Flutter

I dunno, I think the Bahamas would take him in, like any other rich touristy type with a shady history. Heck, he probably already has several bank accounts set up there, and he even used to own property there too.