Ukrainian Attack in Sevastopol, and a Status Update on the War

On Sunday, Ukrainian special forces occupied the Bokyo natural gas platforms off Crimea, among other things removing radars that the Russians were using to track ship movements in the Black Sea. (Video on X, and at YouTube). 

Last night Ukraine launched a major attack on the Sevmorzavod shipyard in Sevastopol, badly damaging a large landing ship and a diesel-electric Kilo-class submarine and setting buildings on the shore on fire. The Russians reported that ten cruise missilies and three naval drones were used, and that they destroyed all the drones and shot down seven cruise missiles. Which might even be true, but just emphasizes the deadliness of modern cruise missiles. Shooting down 70 percent isn't good enough.

This may explain what the attack on the gas platforms was all about: creating a temporary hole in the Russians' radar network to enable this attack.

Still from a bystander video in Sevastopol

It's another small victory that will boost Ukrainian morale and another blow to Russia's war machine. Ukraine has made other clever attacks on Russian military bases in recent months, destroying a couple of strategic bombers and four large transport planes, besides making showy drone attacks on Moscow. If Russians thought they would be safe at home during this war, as they were when they fought in Afghanistan, Ukraine is showing them otherwise.

But none of this is likely to make any difference. The war has been in a grim, grinding stage for months, both sides taking heavy losses as the front line moves a little bit here and there. Despite its awful losses Russia remains determined to fight it out. Their diplomatic position has not changed in the slightest in over a year: they demand all of four Ukrainian states, including Kherson City and other areas they do not occupy, and for Ukraine to divest itself of all weaponry capable of attacking Russia (aircraft, helicopters, missiles, etc.) This is not a basis for negotiations. Russia has found ways around the western sanctions that did definitely hurt its armaments production for a while, and I am now reading that production of missiles and artillery shells is higher than before the war. They are trying to raise 500,000 more troops. They are obviously still planning on a long war, and there is no sign of any real opposition within Russia.

Most of the military attention lately has been focused on this small area in Zaporizhia. Here Ukraine has advanced about 10 km since the offensive started in June, overruning the first line of Russian defenses and breaching the main line – the Surovikin Line – in at least one place. The fighting has been bitter and both sides have thrown in reserves; Russia committed the 76th Airborne Division, which they had been using as an attack force, to shore up their defenses here. If you're wondering why the front line is all straight lines and right angles its because this is agricultural country and all the defenses are in tree lines between the large, rectangular fields.

Now, this is a tiny advance; see this bigger map for scale. Some pro-Ukraine military types think it is nonetheless important. For one thing, Ukraine has breached the immense minefields that halted their June-July attempts at an armored breakthrough, and the thinking is that it might get easier moving forward. But of course Russia is continuing to build more defenses farther back, and opinions differ as to whether they will be formidable.

More important to some observers is that Ukraine has massed enough artillery and HIMARS missiles here to maintain a significant advantage, and they are inflicting serious damage on Russian material and men. To use an analogy from World War I, which seems appropriate, the Ukrainians are trying a plan like the initial German scheme at Verdun, attacking hard enough to force the Russians to keep bringing more men and weapons within range of their guns.

I noted here recently that US military intelligence has revised their estimate and now think Ukraine could make some kind of major breakthrough in this offensive, so they at least are impressed by what is happening here. I'm having trouble seeing it. It's great to destroy a lot of Russian artillery and tanks but they're not on the verge of running out, and it seems that as long as they have men to put in the trenches they can make this a bitter field by field slog.

Many people think Putin is betting that he can outlast Ukraine and its western backers, that western nations will get tired of providing aid and Ukrainians will get sick of war. There isn't much sign that this is happening yet, so I fear we are in for years of war.