A Military-Industrial Policy

At the NY Times, Brett Stephens articulates a plan I have seen numerous hints of on Twitter:

Right now we have serious problems with our defense-industrial infrastructure. Our shipyards don’t have enough resources to build sufficient numbers of submarines, destroyers and frigates to increase the size of the Navy. Many of our existing ships must wait years for necessary repairs even as we face a growing maritime challenge from China. We’re struggling to replace all of the munitions we’ve given to Ukraine, especially artillery shells but also Stingers and Javelins. And inflation has eaten away at the value of our defense dollars. This doesn’t get a lot of mainstream attention, but people close to the problem understand that it borders on an emergency.

So my suggestion is that pro-Ukraine Democrats and anti-China Republicans — and vice versa — unite around legislation that would fund a five-year, $250 billion supplemental defense bill to refurbish our defense infrastructure, create thousands of unionized jobs, restock our munitions and help our allies. In honor of Franklin Roosevelt, I would call it the “Arsenal of Democracy” bill.

The problem with this plan, as compared with Biden's plans to invest that kind of money in transportation infrastructure and clean energy, is that when you're done what you end up with is a bunch of weapons you hope you never need to use. Whereas with infrastructure, instead of bunkers full of missiles on Guam you get new roads and railroads and lead-free water, and you speed the process of replacing coal with solar and wind. On the other hand, with the military option you might have deterred a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Stephens also doesn't say anything about how we're going to pay for it. I think that if this were paid for with higher taxes on the rich, and it were the only spending option that could get the votes, I would sign on.

This plan reminds me of an important and little known episode in US history, Roosevelt's "billion dollar navy." Before 1940 FDR was never able to get any money from Congress to build up the army, because isolationist sentiment was too strong, But he was able to get funding for shipbuilding, working with an alliance of internationalists who shared his fear of another great war, a few isolationists who thought a navy would be useful in keeping enemies away, and leftists who wanted more union shipyard jobs. As a result, by Pearl Harbor the US had more than doubled the size of its fleet and had eleven new aircraft carriers under construction.