The More Things Change, Etc., Ukraine War Edition

William Owen is the editor of Military Strategy magazine and many military types consider him a very wise man. In his most recent editorial he says we should scorn all talk of how war has changed and go reread Carl von Clausewitz, whose most famous line is "War is merely the continuation of policy with other means":

The only real insight the War in Ukraine is revealing to serious students of strategy is War does not change and warfare can change only slowly. . . . 

War is a product of politics, and Ukraine is showing this truth as clearly as possible in terms of the nature of the warfare observable, reflecting the political choices made by both sides. The fighting and bloodshed in Bahkmut is not an inevitable outcome of some objective truth about fighting in the 21st century. It is an outcome of political choices made by both sides, as emphasised by the report that the US Army advised the Ukrainians to abandon the town. The political, not military, leaders of Ukraine said no. It is of little comfort to tell the cold, wet and wounded that they are fighting for a space on the map with little to no military value, but then what is “military value?” Such value can only come from its relevance to policy or politics. An officer of the Prussian Army of 1815 would see nothing in the current war that would make him think that mankind has evolved to such a degree that War was now somehow different. 

The book referenced is On War, published in 1832 and based mainly on the campaigns of Napoleon and Frederick the Great.

One of my biggest takeaways from the war has been that everything still depends on the willingness of soldiers to fight and die. Putin's initial invasion plan was based on the belief that Ukrainian soldiers had no such willingness, so they would throw down their guns at the sight of Russian tanks. Turns out they have an immense willingness to struggle, suffer and die in defense of Ukraine. Meanwhile I am also impressed that Russian soldiers have mostly also shown a great willingness to fight in die in this war. Which is why it has gone on so long and been so deadly. Short wars and easy victories only happen when one side gives up.

I suppose another lesson of the war is that the western democracies have much more appetite for throwing money into the pit of this war than Putin and others suspected. There may be a limit, and we may hit it within another year, but for now western aid remains massive and there has been very little whining about the cost.