Americans and Evolution

The Pew Research Center has been polling Americans about evolution again, with the results shown here. Not much change in the headline number: 60% think we have evolved, 33% think we did not. The poll shows that this is related to religion, but not the same as religion. It looks to me like 27% of white evangelical Protestants do believe in evolution despite what they are told on Sunday, while 31% of Hispanic Catholics don't accept evolution even though the Pope does.

Accepting that people have evolved is one thing; accepting that this happened by natural selection quite another. Only 32% of Americans accept the fully scientific view that we evolved by "natural processes," while 24% follow the line taken by the Catholic church and many Protestant denominations, that we evolved but under divine guidance. I would say that believing we evolved entirely by natural selection is incompatible with Christianity, since it raises uncomfortable questions about when and how we acquired souls. Which makes me wonder about all the religious Americans who espouse this view.

Lots of attention is being paid in the press to this last table, about the growing partisan gap in religion. In just four years the percentage of Republicans who deny evolution has grown from 43 to 54 percent. This surely does not represent a change in the beliefs of that many individual Republicans, but a shift in the kind of people who identify as Republicans. Identification with the Republican party is more and more a matter of religion and culture; the party is becoming the mouthpiece of devout white people. This is especially the case among women. Overall in America fewer women accept human evolution than men, 55% vs. 65%, and fewer women are Republicans. Pew's tables don't show this, but I would be willing to bet, based on these numbers, that among women a very large majority who identify as Republicans do so for religious and cultural reasons.

To remain in contention for national power, the Republicans have to broaden their base somehow. They are getting creamed among young people, and as the table above shows this may have a lot to do with religious and cultural attitudes. It seems to me that Republicans can either try to expand their base ethnically, bringing in culturally conservative Hispanics and blacks, or else move away from culturally conservative views and try to bring in more independent minded, libertarian-leaning young people. But as the percentage of religious white people in the country steadily shrinks, representing only them is a losing strategy.