The Ceasefire Project, a research initiative that tracked outcomes of 2,202 cease-fires from 1989 to 2020, found that 68 percent of those were never formally written down. Its data showed that failed cease-fires typically last from 65 to 193 days and that humanitarian cease-fires have historically been “the most likely to be followed quickly by renewed violence.” Most peace processes require at least three cease-fires along the way.
Outsiders calling for a cease-fire in Ukraine always struck me as a little odd, since both sides think the other side would just use the pause to re-arm. I appreciates this:
“People tend to reach for cease-fires when they do not know what else to do,” said Valerie Sticher, a senior researcher at ETH Zurich.
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