Ukraine's Southern Offensive

So how is Ukraine's summer offensive going?

So far, not much has happened. Attacks on the flanks of Bakhmut that began weeks ago continue, with recent advances of up to a kilometer. Prigozhin, who is being pretty alarmist these days, was dismissive of this attack, saying that the front lines may well fall but plenty of Russian forces are on hand for defense in depth. I have yet to see any convincing explanation of what Ukraine hopes to gain here, beyond forcing Russia to defend in many places at once.

The new element is the southern advance, which began in a limited way on June 4 but really got under way the night of June 7 to 8. At least one of the June 7 attacks blundered badly, giving us videos of bunched up armored vehicles being shredded by Russian artillery, exactly the reverse of the famous videos of Russian blundering at Vuhledar. This is where the first confirmed loss of a Leopard 2 tank took place. (Ukrainians later released a video showing them recovering a Leopard tank after it had lost a tread, but it was shot too close for anyone to tell if it was this Leopard or some other.) Ukraine also lost three of the six Leopard mine-clearing vehicles they got from Finland.

Which produced a lot of mockery from Russian partisans, which produced a lot of posts from pro-Ukraine guys about the inevitability of losses in any offensive, etc. Also several references to the Second Battle of el Alamein in 1942, when the British Army fought its way through a German fortified line; the units that led the attack lost 80 percent of their tanks and many men as well, but once they broke through the line the situation was suddenly reversed, and the retreating Germans took very heavy losses in their turn. Which is a nice model if Ukraine can get there. 

So far the biggest advance looks like this.

June 10.

June 11. 

Pretty big files if you want to click and zoom in. The maximum advance is between 5 and 6 kilometers.

So the Russians are being pushed back, and in Ukraine they are thrilled by every village retaken. But this is just a village by village slog; Ukrainian forces are still at least 10 kilometers away from the main Russian fortified line, and there is another line beyond that one. Ukraine has used many HIMARS and other missiles, but Russian artillery has not been neutralized and remains very active. 

Ukrainian vehicle losses south of Orkhiv

Russian forces are so far fighting well; one Ukrainian soldier said,

They were just waiting for us, prepared positions everywhere… It was a wall of steel. It was horrendous.

 The Institute for the Study of War wrote,

Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are continuing to defend against Ukrainian attacks in accord with sound tactical defensive doctrine.

Pro-Ukraine guys on Twitter see a video of 20 Russians running from a position and say, "they're panicking!" But this is the front line, not the main line; those soldiers are supposed to extract whatever price they can and then fall back. That's "sound tactical defensive doctrine."  As one Russian soldier put it of these battles,

Regular military work is going on.

You might ask yourself why Ukraine is attacking in the south, where Russia expects it and has spent months preparing defenses. Because, say most of the experts, that is the only place where the strategic situation can be changed in a major way. If Ukraine breaks through to the Sea of Azov they will have cut off a big chunk of territory and possibly thousands of Russians soldiers as well, and they might be able to retake Crimea. Otherwise, say these experts, Ukraine will just pay a heavy price for every square kilometer.

Two things stand out to me about Ukraine's southern offensive so far. First, few forces have been committed. The largest attacks anyone has seen video of are in company strength, maybe a dozen vehicles. Ukraine has assembled a reserve force of at least 25 brigades, and so far maybe five have been committed. 

Why are they making many small attacks rather than one or two large ones? And why are they feeding their forces in so slowly? Some guys on Twitter say it's because grouping several brigades into a small area invites Russia to use a tactical nuke. I doubt that; whatever message it was that the Americans and Chinese delivered to Putin about nukes, it seems to have worked.

One explanation is that they are making what Napoleon called an attack en echelon. This means you keep making attacks in multiple places, forcing your opponent to commit his reserves; once he has no more reserves you send a powerful attack at some other location to break his line decisively. In this view Ukraine is trying to wear the Russians down by small attacks in many places until a decisive thrust can smash through the weary, weakened Russian forces.

On the other hand, who knows?