Dictatorship, History and Satire in Crimea

A few days ago I was talking to a friend about the coup in Ukraine, and he said, "From Putin's point of view this must look like a triumph for the CIA."

I said I didn't buy it. I said that I didn't see how Yanukovych could have been ousted so easily if he still had strong Russian backing -- and I was perfectly serious about this. But then I started musing about why Putin might have sold out his friend, offering various wild theories. Then it hit me: it's like Hitler with the Sudetenland, I said. Hitler sent agents to foment or fake strife between Germans and Czechs, then stepped in as the defender of the Germans and demanded that Europe acquiesce in his annexation of the German-majority part of Czechoslovakia. So here's Putin, I said, sending in fake fascists and anarchists to oppose the Russian-supported government of Ukraine -- after all, I said, the Russian secret police have 150 years of experience fomenting or faking actions by anarchists -- then helping to arrange a coup against that Russian-supported government by the Ukrainian nationalist party. Now, I predicted, he will step in as the protector of Russians in Ukraine and demand that Europe acquiesce in his annexation of the Russian-majority areas.

I thought this was a clever conversational gambit. But could it really be what is happening?