It strikes me that October 7 is turning out to be the most consequential regional event in a long time, certainly since the Arab spring of 2011 and maybe since the US invasion of Iraq. American officials are cheering the failure of Iranian ambitions along the arc through Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and some Arabs thinking the same way:
A new Middle East is taking shape, with the Iran-led axis facing a significant setback. The Lebanon ceasefire marked a pivotal moment, signaling the end of an era and the onset of a political upheaval for the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance.
Here's a tweet with some good background on HTS and their leader. He calls himself "Abu Muhammad al-Jolani," a nom de guerre that references his desire to retake the Golan Heights from Israel. The sources I have found are very much divided on al-Jolani, some thinking he has changed his tone and beliefs, others thinking he is a violent jihadist in sheep's clothing.
A Syrian:
I hope now people will stop asking us if we regret launching the revolution. We regret nothing. We dared to dream, and we will not regret the struggle for our dignity.
How many refugees will return? Some are already crossing the border from refugee camps, but what about the ones in Europe? Some are tweeting about how excited they are to return, but much depends on what happens in Syria over the next month.
It was only 11 days from the launching of the rebel offensive to the fall of Assad.
4 comments:
Good to see one dictator down but hard to celebrate knowing those in power now are the same that blasted Palmyra Arch, Nimrud and the Bamiyan Buddha.
@Kpgoog
I sympathize with your caution. The situation is quite complicated. It's not clear if Jolani should be considered quite "the same" as ISIS or the Taliban. He's come to power amidst promises that he's reformed and now tolerates non-Sunnis. I've seen a report that at least some Alawites are celebrating Assad's fall and Isma'ili Shi'ites had been "won over" by Jolani (but notably, not Twelvers, the sect that includes Iran's government), so they may think there's reason to accept his new self-presentation. But I'm sure that there's a "Real HTS" out there (thinking of the "Real IRA") that is looking forward to meting out vengeance and theological correction against Alawites, Shi'ites, and others. How Jolani handles this "Real HTS," and whether he can survive their sense of betrayal by him (by which I mean, whether he can avoid assassination), will be important. I'm sure the Turks are also expecting payback in the form of some sort of taming of Syrian Kurds. The Israelis may also have their price, considering that their wounding of Hezbollah was arguably decisive for the situation in Syria. As John says, now comes the hard part.
The NYT this morning reports that one of the rebel factions, the Syrian National Army, supported by Turkish warplanes, attacked Kurdish forces in Manbij. It also reports that Israeli army units have entered Syrian territory beyond the DMZ between Israel and Syria.
Have the Turks Overplayed their Hand? How will this go over with BRICS members?
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