The Syrian Civil War Re-Ignites

I had thought that the Syrian civil war was pretty much over, a frozen conflict that left the Assad government ruling most of the country. But suddenly that has changed, as rebel forces have retaken most of Aleppo and the surrounding district in what it is fair to call a "lightning campaign." There are videos online of rebels seizing  Aleppo police headquarters, dancing in the main square, and occupying a notorious prison, releasing all the prisoners. (More videos here, here, here.) To summarize,

It took the Assad regime 4+ years to conquer Aleppo, with the assistance of Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese Shia militias, and Russian aerial domination. If this offensive continues at this pace, Assad could well lose Aleppo in 4 days.

Actually it only took three days.

As to how much farther they might go,

If you want to know where we are right now, nearly all the Syria analysts I know are trying to remain conservative on how far they think this offensive will go, because they're in a state of disbelief at how quickly regime lines are collapsing.

The context for this advance has to be that all the groups that aided the Assad regime before are now crippled (Hezbollah) or distracted (Russia, Iran). Russia withdrew most of its aircraft and air defense assets last year, along with all its regular army infantry. Russia's remaining airplanes have been active but their base is under drone attack and they don't seem to have had much impact; online Russian sources are worried about the rebels taking their naval base at Tartus.

Various people on Twitter/X, notably British/Lebanese journalist Oj Kateri, say that this offensive had been planned for quite a while:

Preparations for the battle began two years ago when Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham began raiding along the front lines. Then all the factions formed training camps where serious preparations were made. Military manufacturing developed to the level of drones with a range of at least 120 km, based on those used in the Ukrainian war, and the factions calmed down their differences and Tahrir al-Sham, as the largest and most organized faction, sought to accommodate everyone.

One of the discoveries I made when I began following the Ukraine war on Twitter/X is that there is a loose online alliance of people worldwide who believe they stand for freedom against tyranny. They seem to have formed around the Syrian civil war. Their enemies are the Assad regime and those who supported it: Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Hezbollah, Hamas. So they see those fighting against that Axis of Evil as their allies: the Syrian rebels, Ukraine, Israel. They cheered the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah and root for the fall of Russia and Iran; their bitterest insults were launched at Obama for declining to intervene in the Syrian war. This new Syrian rebel offensive has them cheering again, and posting like mad. Here is an example of their thinking:

The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, played a pivotal role in shaping modern Russian foreign policy and military doctrine, marking the resurgence of Russia as a global power in conflict zones. For Russia, Syria was a testing ground for new strategies and military technologies, such as precision airstrikes, electronic warfare, and the integration of hybrid warfare tactics. Moscow’s intervention, which officially began in 2015, was framed as a response to the perceived instability caused by Western involvement in the Middle East, particularly U.S. and NATO actions. The war allowed Russia to assert itself as a key player in the region, bolstering its influence in the Middle East and challenging the U.S.-led order. Through its support for the Assad regime, Russia not only preserved a strategic ally but also demonstrated its ability to project military power far from its borders. This marked the beginning of a more assertive Russian doctrine, focusing on exploiting regional conflicts to reassert influence, undermine Western alliances, and promote its vision of a multipolar world order. . . .

Following its intervention in Syria, Russia's military and diplomatic strategies expanded to other conflict zones, notably Libya and Ukraine, further solidifying its doctrine of using hybrid warfare and military influence to assert power on the global stage. In Libya, Russia has supported General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army in a bid to challenge the UN-backed Government of National Unity, using mercenaries, arms shipments, and covert support. . . . 

Russia's ongoing support for separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine, along with its full-scale invasion in 2022, demonstrated its commitment to challenging the post-Cold War European security order and reasserting its influence over former Soviet states. . . . These interventions across multiple fronts have reinforced Russia's doctrine of employing military force, proxy wars, and strategic alliances to assert its dominance and challenge the West's global influence, marking a significant shift in its foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. Thus, what is happening today in Syria with the rebels taking over large areas of land is directly undermining Russia’s future plans in the Middle East.

I am not sure what to make of this. On one level one has to agree with US representative Joe Wilson (Rep-SC):

Millions of Syrians have suffered unthinkable atrocities under a regime that survived only because of war criminal Putin and terrorist Khamenei. They do not want to be refugees, they want their homes and communities that butcher Assad has stolen. May God be with them.

But on the other, the Syrian opposition includes a dozen different armed groups with very different agendas, including the remnants of ISIS and Kurds who want to leave the country altogether. When a similar coalition overthrew the Gaddafi regime in Libya, the results were not pretty.

At the moment I do not think this offensive is a serious threat to the Assad regime; the rebels seem to have astonished themselves just by taking the closest city, and it's a long way to Damascus. I am interested to see where the lines stabilize, and to see what sort of government is set up in Aleppo.

But it may turn out that October 7 has reshaped regional politics in very big and far-reaching ways.

UPDATE 1

The rebel offensive is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS was once an arm of al Qaeda but turned against them, allied with Turkey, and defeated ISIS and another al Qaeda faction in tough battles. Here's a 2021 article on the group. From the abstract:

In pursuit of local dominance and ultimately survival, HTS has broken one jihadi taboo after another, including turning against al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State and dealing crippling defeats to both in Syria’s northwest. The implications and consequences of these developments are manifold. On the one hand, not only does HTS no longer represent the international terrorism threat that its predecessor once had, it has also almost entirely squashed the global threat posed by its more extreme rivals and played a role in maintaining the longest ceasefire in a decade of war in Syria. On the other hand, however, HTS’ de facto rule of northwestern Syria threatens to ‘mainstream’ a local jihadi model that looks set to experience a substantial boost by the Taliban’s surge to power in Afghanistan. Should conditions dramatically change, it could also come to represent a strategically significant terrorist safe haven once again—on Europe’s doorstep.

Statement from HTS here saying they don't really want to fight Russia, just overthrow Assad. 

UPDATE 8 PM EST

Reports that the Syrian government and its forces have abandoned  Aleppo and withdrawn to al Safrah 10 miles to the southeast.

UPDATE 8 AM EST

The statue of Bassel el-Assad, the dictator's brother, is toppled in Aleppo.

Revolt has broken out in Daraa in Syria's southwest, at the other end of the country from Aleppo. Seems disorganized and chaotic for now; observers are waiting to see if former rebels who accepted Assad's rule back in 2018 will join this revolt. Defense analyst Michael Horowitz says, "In southern Syria, a low-level insurgency never disappeared, and could escalate."

Online sources say the rebels have taken Maarat, 50 miles southwest of Aleppo, another place that was fought over for years but now may have changed hands in hours. Here is the announcement from the rebels. And several smaller places in this area.

Shashank Joshi of the Economist has more on HTS, drawn from this article.

Russian sources (Rybar, Rusich) are scathing about the Syrian army, calling them cowards, etc. They say this about the fighting:

Everyone noted the sudden panic that overtook the Syrian army, so there may be something to this. If so, all well-organized armies attacking less effective forces should take note and make good use of social media to create and spread panic.

On the subject on possible dissension among the rebels, this:

While we are ultimately happy to see Assad go, we also don't want Jolani's radicalism, or any faction that does not look out for the rights of Syrians. The real test is now; no revenge, no corruption, no religious ideologies being imposed overs others. Our mandate is freedom.

The same source says Erdogan is not Syria's friend and his power must be resisted.

UPDATE Noon EST

You can follow the fighting at the Live Syria Map.

Additional places said to have fallen to the rebels: Hama and the nearby air base, Halfaya, Aleppo International Airport.

Rebels claim to have shot down a Russian or Syrian jet over Aleppo. They were earlier seen posing with recently captured MANPADS systems.

Reports that Syrian officers have started evacuating their families from Homs to Damascus.

The Syrians abandoned lots of valuable equipment like tanks and air defense systems along their retreat routes, apparently because they ran out of gas. It's a sign of complete panic when soldiers flee without first gassing up their vehicles.

Video of crowds celebrating the liberation of Hama.