Lots of optimism from economists about Kenya, where the economic growth has averaged around 5% per year for more than 20 years running. (Michael Power, Tyler Cowen) A few facts:
The population is about 55 million, with a growth rate of 2.1% and a total fertility of 3.17; the UN projects that the population will top out at around 95 million in the 2050s, but other recent studies show birth rates declining faster than that.
The government is a democracy; there are tribal tensions but since the largest ethnic group makes up only 17% of a very diverse population, no group can dominate and coalitions are inevitable.
Kenya has a thriving tech sector; the most-used mobile money Ap in the world is Mpesa, developed in Kenya.
Kenya has a long history of trading with India, and there are substantial Indian and Pakistani communities in Indian cities; Cowen said the best food he ate in Kenya was at Indian restaurants.
More recently Kenya has been developing strong ties with China, which has invested in Kenyan roads and railroads; there are also Chinese communities in Nairobi and Mombasa and many Chinese restaurants.
There is much small-scale manufacture done everywhere: "On a drive into the City Centre from Nairobi Airport — now much faster thanks to a Chinese-built highway — you can see roadside manufacture of beds, buckets, furniture, tin trunks, lamps, kitchen pots, jikos (ovens), coffins… you name it."
Kenya currently generates more than 80 percent of its electricity from renewable sources and has an official goal of reaching 100% by 2030. This is a mix of solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal, drawing on the volcanic area of the Rift Valley; Icelandic companies are using state-of-the-art technology to help expand Kenyan geothermal plants. Off-grid solar powers hundreds of villages, and Power notes that from the air you can see the glitter of solar panels across the Kenyan bush.
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