Osint guys on Twitter/X (and here) are reporting US air attacks on Iran-supported Iraqi militiamen in Syria:
Over 50 Iranian-Backed Militants were killed, and at least a dozen Military Trucks and Technicals were destroyed yesterday in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate of Eastern Syria, after a Convoy entering from Iraq was targeted by several A-10 “Warthog” Close-Air Support Attack Aircraft of the U.S. Air Force. In addition, several Iranian Sites near the Town of al-Mayadin were also targeted by Coalition Aircraft, resulting in the destruction of a Command Center and Barracks. These Strikes were likely carried out in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) [Kurds], who have begun to advanced into Assad Regime and Iranian-Backed Territory along the Euphrates River; in preparation for a possible Large-Scale Offensive in Eastern Syria, similar to the one ongoing now in the West of the Country.
But I can't find any official US statement about this. Not that this is really anything new; if you do a quick search for "US air attack Syria" you will see that we launch one every month or so, in response to the regular drone attacks on our troops there: November 12, October 30, September 29, etc.
Some US military types are laughing, saying that since those militias attack US forces all the time, when the Air Foce saw that column strung out along a road they just yelled "yee-ha" and dove in.
So I can't tell if this is just the same-old same-old, or if it really is a US attempt to aid this rebel offensive. Any reinforcements moving from Iraq to Damascus would have to cross areas of eastern Syria where the US and our Kurdish allies are active, so this might be a statement that large-scale movement of Iranian-backed forces into Syria will not be ignored.
But what a bizarre place Syria is, with American and Russian troops both present, trying to help their respective clients without fighting each other, so many active armed groups that you need a glossary to keep all the acronyms straight, a government everyone despises that stays in power only because of foreign support and the fact that some Syrians fear the opposition even more.
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The Institute for the Study of War has started issuing regular updates on this fighting.
Some links on Twitter/X:
Staggering material losses of the Syrian government army.
Very interesting Russian post on how messed up the Syrian government is.
And meanwhile the Russian air forces responds to the rebel advance according to their own traditions, by bombing hospitals.
Two points:
ReplyDelete1) Whatever the US thinks it's doing, the Kurds' goal would, I imagine, be conducted in large part with an eye to the fact that the HTS is Turkish-backed. In this case, it would be less with an eye to overthrowing Assad than providing insurance for themselves.
2) I don't think Assad's government is one "everyone despises." Many, probably most, Alawites depend on it, both because the Assad family is Alawite-identified (with, presumably, extensive patronage ties in the community) and because they, probably rightly, fear the victory of a rebel movement they perceive as Salafist-dominated. I imagine Syrian Shi'ites feel much the same. With due respect to Oz Katerji, I'm skeptical that a successor government to Assad's will be devoted to freedom and tolerance; I expect, sooner or later, it will be ethnic-sectarian, just like Assad's is.
It's possible you could end up with an unstable, armed ethnic-sectarian truce, such as in Lebanon and, now, Iraq.
ReplyDeleteI would agree that the "we want freedom in Syria" faction has a fantastic quality. More realistic people were pleased to see that when HTS entered Aleppo they went out of their way to reassure the Christian population that there would be no pogrom. Hey, no massacre! Good news!
ReplyDelete