As of Monday morning, Ukraine seems to be in full control of Sudzha, a town of about 5,000. Ukrainian forces have been spotted in many villages across 700 square kilometers of Kursk oblast, but some of them are far-ranging commando or reconnaissance groups, and nobody knows how much of the area is really under Ukrainian control. However, there are significant main line forces involved as well, including battalions from Ukraine's best mechanized and air assault brigades. [Update 12 August: Ukraine's chief of staff says Ukraine "controls" 1,000 square kilometers of Kurst oblast.]
Thanks in part to those wide-ranging commando units, Russian forces rushing to the combat zone have been ambushed or attacked with missiles, leading to hundreds of casualities. (here, here)
It is reported that Ukraine got a lot of intelligence about Russian troop movements by hacking cctv cameras along Russian roads.
Russia has ordered the evacuation of more than 100,000 people from border zones. We saw video of the governor of Belgorod going door to door, persuading babushkas to leave.
Ukrainian forces have taken Russian prisoners, with numbers flying around that range from 300 to 2,000. Some of the prisoners are 19-year-old conscripts; Russia has tried to keep young conscripts out of the fighting, and when they had to throw them into the breach to stem Ukraine's major attack of September, 2022 there was a lot of grumbling in Russia. It seems that they were "defending" this segment of the front line because Russia did not think anything would happen there.
Russia is using aircraft to attack the Ukrainian forces, but the pilots are being very cautious, apparently because Ukraine brought up a lot of anti-aircrat units; we've seen video of Russian helicopters flying 10 feet off the ground, which you only do when you are very nervous about being shot down. Plus Ukraine now has F-16s with long-range air-to-air missiles, and presumably some of them are hovering around, looking for opportunities to dash in and launch a missile at any Russian plane that lingers too long over this area. It has been confirmed by Russian sources that two jet fighters and one attack helicopter have been lost in the past few days, likely here.
Nobody knows what Ukraine's military goals are, so we don't know how likely they are to achieve them. But politically this is, so far, a big win for Ukraine. Ukraine's friends are pumped up, and Russia's are some combination of angry and despondent. I haven't sensed so much energy in the pro-Ukraine community since their last major offensive petered out in the summer of 2023.
Some random tweets:
Zelenskyy "pressured Ukrainian generals to carry out the operation to counter the narrative that Ukraine has lost the war, accepting the risk of escalating conflict and potential severe repercussions."
Ukrainian reserve officer Tatarigami: "One of the arguments used by Russian propaganda during the occupation of Crimea was that the local population didn’t resist the invasion. Following that same logic, it seems that Kursk has been waiting for years to join Ukraine."
Supposed video from a Russian man in Sudzha who says he asked a Ukrainian soldier what he should do. The reply was, "Learn the Ukrainian anthem and prepare for a referendum."
Russians keep claiming to have spotted western special forces in Kursk, especially Brits and Poles, leading to lots of jokes like this and this.
Military Analyst Jan Kallberg: "The Russians' massive officer losses in Bachmut and along the front are now playing out in Kursk. With no experienced junior officers that can lead, the Russian units become just a mass of individuals, and they will take massive losses."
11 AM Eastern time Monday:
Yesterday the Russian MoD claimed that Ukrainian armor had reached the settlements of Tolpino, Zhuravli and Obshchii Kolodez, but were repelled. We often see the Russians exaggerate the success of the Ukrainians only to claim that they have been repelled back to the positions that they actually occupy. However in the case of Zhuravli, Ukrainian MRAPs have been geolocated to the eastern edge of the settlement. The question now becomes, did the Russians actually repel the attacks? . . . If Ukrainian forces have in fact successfully advanced to Tolpino as well, then Korenevo is in danger of being enveloped. This is a key position that would allow Ukraine to continue the attack on towards the strategically important town of Rylsk.
Tweet dated August 11 from Marcus Faber, chairman of the defense committee in the German parliament:
Dear Friends,Thread on the organization Russia has set up to deal with the Kursk crisis, and the potential problems. It's a "counter-terrorist operation," which means the FSB and other security services have a role as well as the military. The military forces involved are drawn from multiple military districts. So who is in charge? We don't know.
The Ukrainian attack on the invasion force near Kursk is going better than expected. It forces the aggressor to withdraw large forces from the front in the east, easing the situation there. A reason to talk more about [sending] Leopard2.
The attack shows the Russian population that their dictator has lost control and that the military leadership is overwhelmed. A good basis for peace negotiations with Putin's successor. And negotiating with Putin at the International Criminal Court.
Nobody knows what Ukraine's military goals are, so we don't know how likely they are to achieve them. But politically this is, so far, a big win for Ukraine. Ukraine's friends are pumped up, and Russia's are some combination of angry and despondent. I haven't sensed so much energy in the pro-Ukraine community since their last major offensive petered out in the summer of 2023.
ReplyDeleteI have to believe that there's substantial overlap between the political and military goals here. The point of this, if nothing else, is to give Putin a black eye and cause the Russian people to wail and gnash their teeth. But there are obvious benefits beyond that.
The key in everything is that they have successfully taken and occupied land that is unquestionably part of Russia proper, rather than a place like Crimea or the Donbas which legally are Ukrainian, but being disputed by Russia on Russian terms.
This embarrasses Putin's regime deeply - it shows he "can't even defend Russia proper". This is exactly the right sort of embarrassment to inflict, because the Russian people are a lot like Americans - they love war when it's taking place on other people's land, but threats to their own lands are unthinkable. Putin will HAVE to respond to this, because his people will demand that all of Kursk oblast be retaken, and he will commit heavily - and hopefully overcommit, weakening the lines elsewhere.
It also serves as a major bargaining chip. Russia can't accept a peace in which they lose parts of Kursk oblast, and so their grip over the Donbas becomes more tenuous, and the ground is laid for exchanging occupied regions if any sort of real peace deals starts to be considered. The Russian option to simply defend Donbas until they win by default has now vanished.
Ukraine has drawn Russia into a fight they cannot refuse, where they can inflict heavy physical losses on top of an already massive blow to morale.
And even beyond that, there is still a purely military benefit to all this - they've created a bulge in the line, and gotten past the primary defensive entrenchments. If the Russian response is slow / weak enough, that bulge could grow and potentially result in a breakthrough.
If Ukraine can punch through to the Russian interior, they can REALLY scare the Russians. If they can get behind the lines and continue to move move toward Moscow, even slowly, the potential panic they can cause is tremendous, and would dramatically reshape the entire war front.