The statistics, and most economists, say that the US economy is doing great. But many Americans disagree. In one NY Times poll from a few months ago, only 3 percent said the state of the economy is "excellent," while 51 percent opted for "poor." The most interesting question asked how much change people want to see in the "political and economic system in America":
2% The system does not need changes
27% The system needs minor changes
55% The system needs major changes
14% The system needs to be torn down entirely
Trump's lead in that poll was, I think, mostly explained by the finding that 45% of voters thought he would make major changes if elected, vs. 11% for Biden.
Which brings me to this NY Times piece on Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy. Murphy has ben getting a lot of attention lately for saying things like this:
The signs are clear, and we shouldn’t be afraid to see them. The postwar neoliberal economic project is nearing its end, and the survival of American democracy relies on how we respond.
Not because of simple economics; like anyone who can read a graph, Murphy understands that in basic numerical terms the economy is fine:
The challenges America faces aren’t really logistical. They are metaphysical. And the sooner we understand the unspooling of identity and meaning that is happening in America today, the sooner we can come up with practical policies to address this crisis.
Ok, fine, if there is such a thing as a metaphysical crisis, maybe America is having one. But how, exactly, does one address a metaphysical crisis with "practical policies'?
Murphy's plan for fighting the crisis seems to be, as near as I can tell, the same as those of Trump and J.D. Vance: "A pro-family, pro-community program of economic nationalism," coupled with an attack on "massive concentrations of corporate power." Come to think of it, that is pretty much Biden's plan, too. I mean, whatever else you may think of Biden, he has made the support of union factory workers the centerpiece of his politics for 50 years.
Why don't we do this? It is within the power of the US government to adopt a program of economic nationalism: higher tariffs, subsidies for domestic manufacturing, more training in skilled trades and less for college academics, etc. We could bring more manufacturing back to the US. The thing is, the first impact of such a policy would be much higher prices for goods. It just costs more to have things made by Americans earning middle class incomes than buying them from China or Bangladesh. And as recent events reminded us, there is nothing Americans hate more than inflation. Rant about neoliberalism all you want, it is world trade that makes things like furnature and clothes affordable for working class people. If people really want both a return of industry to America and continued low prices – which is what polls say – they are in la la land.
Another angle on the issue comes from Julius Krein, a new right figure who supports Trump. Krein and Murphy have
a common goal: to remake the incentive structure of our economy. “The core issue is that our economy became one based on extracting rents,” Mr. Krein told me, “rather than building things.” It rewards those who invent clever ways to squeeze money out of government and regular people. This is the simple explanation for why so many jobs feel soulless and so many Americans feel harried and troubled amid the vast material wealth our country produces.
What kind of "things," exactly, do we need more of? So far as I can tell, we are awash in things. I constantly fantasize about throwing half of mine away. People complain about infrastructure, like high speed rail, or a better power grid, but we don't have those because people fight hell to keep them away from where they live. I suppose more good housing is an option, but most of the country has plenty of housing, including almost all the counties that went for Trump in 2020. Housing shortages are only a thing in certain big cities where a lot of people want to live so they can earn a good money doing soulless jobs. And is there any category of people Americans hate more than "property developers"?
Again, Biden agrees with all of this, and this generation's biggest single government act designed to fight the shift from making stuff to extracting rents was his "CHIPS and Science act." Somehow, though, this actual attempt ("practical policy") to bring more middle class factory jobs to the US failed to resonate. It was too complicated, too abstruse, to high tech:
“Great leaders tell stories that fit within the cultural and religious contexts of nations,” the Bay Area representative Ro Khanna told me. He helped write the CHIPS and Science Act, but he thought that the Democrats had failed to explain what they wanted it to achieve. “Symbolically, politically and culturally, Biden announcing three new steel plants in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio might have done more than the entire CHIPs act combined, because it would have showed that we were listening,” Mr. Krein said.
“Politics is not just about policy,” he said. “It’s about the vision of a nation. It’s about signaling that we’re heading somewhere.”
So, I guess, Americans are only interested in industrial policy if it is stupid and counterproductive? WE DO NOT NEED MORE STEEL MILLS.
Or is this just more longing for the Great Leader who will somehow fulfill us and make us proud? Bah to that.
I think this is all baloney. This whole fantasy of bringing back American manufacturing is a silly attempt to explain our lousy mood. I don't think our malaise has anything to do with steel production; I don't think it has much to do with economics at all. If it did, we would be happier.
I think the root of the problem is a pervasive sense that ordinary life is just not good enough. That a life of going to work and getting paid and buying things and having "fun" when we can is empty and pointless and just too hard.
I think this is a very widespread human problem, which is why we have never been a happy species. Certain modern Catholics seem to think that medieval people were happier because they knew who they were and had a rich religious life, to which I say, plague-pogroms-riots-revolts-murder-suicide-misery. People like David Graeber seem to think life was better for hunter-gatherers or primitive farmers, but so far as I can tell they do a lot of bitching about their own lives, and when offered the chance to try "civilization" as an alternative, most of them took it.
As for our particular situation, I will list some factors I think contribute to our bad mood. None of these apply to all Americans, and some apply onto to a minority, but I think they all contribute:
- Immigration and racial change; many Americans miss the days when all their neighbors looked the same. I think immigration is great because it makes this a more vibrant and exciting country, but I understand that many others disagree.
- Declining religious faith and church membership.
- Rapid social change, e.g., gay rights, the decline of the patriarchal family, trans identities, etc. Many, many people just hate change and want things to stay the way they were. Meanwhile people who support these changes often wish they would go further and hate it that other people oppose this.
- Ecological doomsterism.
- The absense of an obvious foreign enemy to hate.
- The rewriting of history to bring out slavery, racism, and other crimes and evils, undermining a happy narrative of We Are the Good Guys.
- Changes in the news media. The new motto of the news is "panic sells." And it isn't just Fox News or other right-wing sources; CNN's policy seems to be to lead broadcast with the Fear of the Day, whether it is "new, more deadly" strains of monkeypox, shoplifting flash mobs, microplastics, or what have you. (How would you adress this with "practical policies"? Mandate that 68% of news stories be positive?)
- Economic inequality. This really does seem to bother many people, including many who oppose all the measures we know of that might reduce it, like higher taxes.
- Constant exposure, via television and social media, to people whose lives seem to me much more exciting, fulfilling, and less of a druge than yours is.
- Angry fights between political parties and figures that make people think half the country is their evil enemies.
- Too many drugs.
- We are social mammals, and for all social mammals, fights about status and struggles for material advantage are fundamental to existence.
- Evolution shaped us to desire, not to be content.
I mean, whatever else you may think of Biden, he has made the support of union factory workers the centerpiece of his politics for 50 years.
ReplyDeleteIs that why unions in this country are weaker than they've been in a century?
And why Biden infamously quashed the railroad unions when they went on strike, not only depriving them of fair pay, but also clearing the path for the railroad companies to gut safety rules, both worsening working conditions for railroad employees AND putting the public at greater risk?
The railroads pushed for - and obtained - train lengths that used to be illegal (trains over a mile long, sometimes two or three miles long; the maximum in Europe is 750m).
They then cut the minimum number of workers attending to a train in half, even as the trains started to double and triple in length, or more.
And then they decided that the 10 minute safety inspections that trains routinely have to stop on the tracks to perform could somehow magically be performed in just 1 minute instead. Carried out by as few as two employees. Who have to perform their inspections on foot, with one inspector starting at either end of the train and meeting in the middle. Of a train that is more than a mile long. Causing them to have to walk half a mile, and then backtrack another half mile (because at least one person needs to be in the engine car).
All in 60 seconds. Meaning they have to somehow magically walk at a speed of 60 mph. And they have to somehow magically inspect the structure of every single car and its wheels for signs of possible damage or wear and tear, while rocketing past at highway speed.
It's a flagrant disregard for both physics and safety, and everyone knows it. But these sham "inspections" are the current requirement, and so employees have to go along with the charade or risk reprisal. A huge part of the reason why railroad workers went on strike was to protest the flagrant disregard for safety that was being pushed by the railroad companies, and to highlight the retaliation they faced if they dared speak up about the obvious corruption and negligence.
And Biden shut all of that down, and gave the railroads carte blanche to carry on freely, and continue to force employees to play along with the farce or risk losing their jobs (or worse).
What kind of "things," exactly, do we need more of? So far as I can tell, we are awash in things. I constantly fantasize about throwing half of mind away.
ReplyDeleteYou are also far more comfortably well off than most Americans. Many millions of your fellow countrymen would like to be able to afford the sorts of things you are able to take for granted. Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck, and would prefer to do otherwise; to not have to worry about how they're going to afford both rent AND groceries each month; to say nothing of affording things like insurance, or a car that is less than twenty years old; or simply being able to put away any meaningful amount of savings.
The median American savings is a mere $8,000, and over a quarter of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings. You might be able to fantasize about throwing away half your possessions, but most Americans can only WISH they had the problem of such luxury.
People complain about infrastructure, like high speed rail, or a better power grid, but we don't have those because people fight hell to keep them away from where they live.
ReplyDeleteI think you overestimate how much of the opposition to these proposals comes from actual people, and don't realize just how much ultimately comes from self interested organizations and companies, who then expend massive amounts of resources to convince actual people to speak and act on their behalf. Astroturfing is ubiquitous in this country.
At the same time, when such efforts are not in play, I think what people actually oppose in most infrastructure projects is A) their lack of a meaningful voice in the decision making project, and B) their lack of fair compensation for any negative effects they will be forced to face.
People have legitimate reasons to complain about construction - it's ugly, it's noisy, it disrupts traffic (vehicle and pedestrian alike), and it has the potential to completely reshape the character of entire neighborhoods and boroughs. Some outside company coming in and completely reshaping the place you call home can be really painful and unpleasant.
But people being given a say in HOW it happens tends to help reduce friction and ease complaints. And more than that, being paid generously for their troubles goes a MUCH longer way toward getting people to accept changes.
After all, if someone doesn't like the way their neighborhood looks after it's been rebuilt by outsiders, that would be okay so long as they were paid handsomely enough to be able to move somewhere else and be just as well off as before, if not meaningfully better. What people really resent is being forced to face hardship in order to massively profit faceless corporate interests. If the people being affected or displaced massively profited too, the complaints would be substantially reduced.
You focus on how absurd it is to want to bring back American manufacturing.
ReplyDeleteYou focus on how even if we brought back American manufacturing, that would mean increased prices.
You focus on the economy, and its ostensible strength.
But what you don't do is look at the things BEHIND those things.
Why do people think they want American manufacturing? Is it because American made items are somehow superior? Is it because they're just gonzo for Nationalism and reject foreign things reflexively? Is it because they think we need more steel mills?
No - it's because American factory jobs used to pay well, and even if the jobs themselves were unpleasant and difficult, a single earner could support a family of four comfortably, and not live hand to mouth.
People don't really want American manufacturing - they want the quality of life that American manufacturing used to offer. (But no longer does.)
People don't want low priced foreign goods specifically - they want just want goods that they can afford, while still being able to put away savings, regardless of where they come from.
Some people imagine that American made goods would be preferable, even if they cost more, because wages would be higher too. Who cares if an American made item costs twice the price of a foreign one, if American workers also earn three times the wages?
And that leads us into the ostensible strength of our economy, and the fact that we produce PLENTY of value already, and the ultimate conclusion that must be drawn from that:
Our problem is not that we don't produce enough. Our problem is how we divide the fruits of our labors. The problem is one you mention, but which you stubbornly insist on downplaying and underestimating the power of - income inequality.
~~~
The bottom 50% of Americans (166+ million people) have a combined wealth of about $250 billion.
The three richest Americans have a combined wealth of $350+ billion.
Since 1989, the aggregate wealth of the bottom 50% of Americans has decreased by $0.9 trillion.
Since 1989, the aggregate wealth of the top 1% of Americans has increased by $21 trillion.
And then there's the generational gap:
Your generation, John - the Baby Boomers - have an aggregate wealth of $71+ trillion.
My generation - the Millennials - have an aggregate wealth of $9+ trillion.
Maybe the reason you can fantasize about being able to throw away half your possessions is that you have 8 times the amount of wealth as us.
If the Boomers DID throw half of their possessions away, they'd still be 4 time richer than us. And that would merely put them on par with their own children - Gen X - who enjoy an aggregate wealth of $42+ trillion.
The economy is great! Assuming you're not on the bottom! Or aren't young!