Farnaz Fassihi in the NY Times:
Iranians have looked for opportunities in recent months to display defiance against the rules of the clerical government. In Tuesday night’s annual fire festival, many found a chance. Across Iran, thousands of men and women packed the streets as they danced wildly to music and jumped joyfully over large bonfires. . . . The police said the crowds were so large in Tehran and other cities that traffic came to a standstill for many hours. . . .
This is the festival called Chaharshanbeh Suri, part of the lead-up to Nowruz, the traditional Persian New Year, which falls at the Spring Equinox.
In many places, the gatherings turned political, with crowds chanting, “Freedom, freedom, freedom,” “Death to the dictator” and “Get lost, clerics,” . . . The dancing crowds were another example of how far a large part of Iran’s society, particularly the youth, has moved away from the ruling clerics.
In some apartment complexes in Tehran and other cities, DJs played Persian pop songs as a packed crowd danced and sang along. . . People circled the bonfire and held hands while singing “For Women, for Life, for Freedom” from the lyrics of “Baraye,” an anthem of the female-led uprising in 2022.
It's deeply moving to see people defying their oppressors in this joyful way, but I still see little chance that the regime will fall.
It's deeply moving to see people defying their oppressors in this joyful way, but I still see little chance that the regime will fall.
ReplyDeleteCan we assume you felt the same way about the Soviet Union, before chance and happenstance led to the Berlin Wall coming down unexpectedly?
The cracks in a regime can be far more severe than they appear to a distant outside observer. Heck - they can be far more severe than they seem to someone living under that very regime.
Hindsight is 20/20, but foresight is a blind shot in the dark. I prefer not to imagine I know something about the stability of Iran that I actually don't - far better to admit ignorance.
@Verloren
ReplyDeleteThe regime still has quite a lot of support from the devout, from rural conservatives, from the xenophobic, from its enrolled goons (Revolutionary Guards, Basij), from the clerical establishment itself, and other sectors. All of these are numerically and/or institutionally important segments of Iranian society. They're not going away. If the current constitutional structure were overthrown, I suspect the result would be a back-and-forth such as we have seen in Russia, Myanmar, Egypt, and other places.
@David
ReplyDeleteThe Soviet regime had a lot of support too, from "numerically and/or institutionally important segments of Soviet society", and they also were "not going away".
Virtually every outside observer looking at the USSR prior to the Berlin Wall's fall would have made the same prediction - too much support, too well entrenched, it's nice to see some of the youth wearing blue jeans and listening to rock and roll, but it'll never amount to real change.
I'm not arguing that change WILL come. I'm just noting that the naysayers who insist it WON'T are just as clueless about things as people were about the Soviet Union, and are fooling themselves with misplaced confidence. They don't know, anymore than I or anyone else knows. Wait and see, instead of bloviating smugly.
I think you missed my point. I didn't say change wouldn't happen. I said if the current constitutional structure were overthrown, the result would be a back-and-forth such as we have seen in Russia, Egypt, and Myanmar. Read, instead of bloviating smugly.
ReplyDelete