Egypt: Democracy is Hard

Democracy is hard. We in the U.S. tend to gloss this over, partly because it got going comparatively easily here. But we were incredibly lucky; our revolution was not very violent, the British gave up and went home agreeably, a convenient economic depression convinced everyone that a strong central government was needed, the Constitutional Convention came to agreement by the skin of its teeth, and George Washington was probably the best first leader any democracy ever had. Yet we still had to go through a bloody civil war to sort out some crucial issues.

Third world countries face extra problems. The urban middle class, which leads the push for democracy, may then be outvoted by the peasants, bringing to power reactionaries (Egypt, Pakistan) or Robin Hoods (Thailand), so that the people who created the democracy then turn against it. What has happened in Egypt fits a pattern of other new democracies that failed almost at the start. Some of them have recovered, as in Thailand; Pakistan is stalled.

In Egypt there are three power centers: the Islamic Brotherhood and its conservative, Islamic, small town (or small town-minded) supporters; the urban liberals; and the army and the rest of the old regime. The Islamists have the most votes; the urban liberals have the twitter networks and media savvy and the other tools needed to mount big demonstrations; the army has the guns and many of the experienced administrators. There does not seem to be a charismatic, effective leader available who could unite people across factional lines; no Washington, no Ataturk.

It seems to me that a stable government needs the support of at least two factions. It's hard to see how the Islamists and liberals could ally, so that means one or the other group has to cut a deal with the army. Since both the Islamists and liberals came into existence in opposition to the corruption of the old regime, this means selling out some of their key principles, at least for the next decade or so. Morsi was unable or unwilling to do this.

Now I suppose the liberals will try to make a deal with the army and the other old regime elements. I have no great confidence that such an arrangement will lead to a decent government, let alone a new birth of freedom, but I guess they have to try. The key question will then be, what will the Islamic Brotherhood do? Regroup for the next election, or launch a violent revolt?