The Cain Mutiny

The results of the latest nationwide poll of likely Republican primary voters:

Herman Cain 27%
Mitt Romney 23%
Rick Perry 16%
Ron Paul 11%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Michele Bachmann 5%
Jon Huntsman 3%

All the pundits say Cain can't possibly win the nomination, but who knows? Maybe we'll have the first ever Presidential race between two black nominees! I think Cain's candidacy is some sort of publicity stunt and that he would be utterly shell shocked if he ended up as President, but then who on this list really is a serious candidate? Only Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. Perry has lost 2/3 of his voter support in a month of bumbling around like an idiot, and Romney, despite his growing support from Republican office-holders and money men, can't break 25% in a primary poll and obviously does not connect with the Republican base. I suppose they would vote for him any way over Obama, but what a weird outcome if the season of the Tea Party ends with Republicans nominating a man from Massachusetts best known as a health care reformer. Certainly the rise of first Bachmann, then Perry, and now Cain shows that many Republicans are in an anyone but Romney mood.

My interpretation of this mess is that it is hard for a remotely honest person who really wants to lead the country to say things Tea Party voters want to hear. Since what they believe is nonsense --e.g., the recession was caused by government spending, we should have let the banks fail, Obamacare is an attack on our fundamental liberties -- only a lunatic like Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann sounds good to them. Even a say-anything-to-get-elected panderer like Romney can only meet them half way. As so often in American politics they face a choice between a principle-free political operator (Romney) and a nut job (Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Paul, Gingrich). My money is on the principle-free operator. But we'll see.