Modern Warfare: Ukraine's Surprise Attack on Kursk

How did Ukraine launch a successful surprise attack in this age of constant drone surveillance? David Hambling at Forbes:

First, they brought down Russia’s screen of aircraft-type reconnaissance drones, effectively blinding commanders to what was happening. This may have been done by new interceptor FPVs linked to air-defence radar.

There have been several videos lately showing Ukrainian quadcopter drones attacking larger Russian fixed-wing drones, and now we see what that was all about: blinding the Russians along certain segments of the front. 

Secondly, under cover of the temporary observation blackout, short-range jammers were brought forward to the front line. These were programmed with data previously gleaned from electronic warfare reconnaissance.

“They discovered the main frequencies of our border radio communication networks, drone control frequencies, and prepared powerful jammers that crushed our communications,” according to another Russian blogger quoted by WarTranslated.

This was at least partly possible because the area was considered low priority and was not supplied with the latest equipment. In Ukraine, the war of drones versus jammers has been a constant arms race of upgrades as each move to evade jammed frequencies is countered by new jammers. It seems the drones in this sector were not working to the latest standards.

The result was that Russian drones, essential to identify targets and guide artillery, as well FPVs, were not able to function. According to WarTranslated’s source, even the feared Lancet loitering munitions were partly affected. 

Drones are a major asset for stopping armored assaults. Recent reports suggest that they account for two-thirds or more of the tanks killed, with videos showing entire armored assaults knocked out one-by-one by successive FPV hits long before they reached enemy positions.

By concentrating enough jamming resources in the Kursk sector, Ukraine neutralized Russia’s drones, allowing their armor to cross open territory without being destroyed.

But how did they tackle Russian troops dug deep into defensive lines built over the course of two years?

According to [Russian blogger] Three, Ukraine filled the skies with its own drones, “an incessant barrage of high-precision FPVs, which go in swarms.”

OSINT analyst Roy notes that in recent weeks Ukraine has employed powerful drone bombs to blast openings in the overhead cover of Russian trenches and dugouts. Skilled FPV pilots are able to fly though these openings and clear the trench below.

It may be significant that some videos of the action showed new Ukrainian dive-bomber drones. While quadcopter dive-bombing has been seen before, these look like aircraft-type drones with longer range and greater payload. It is a distinct echo of the original Blitzkrieg concept of dive-bombers in close support of ground troops.

One the trenches are cleared, Three say that new Ukrainian ranger units quickly moved in to occupy and secure the empty positions, following close behind the drones (‘Drone rangers’?). Then the radio jammers were brought forward, and the whole process was repeated for the next stage of the advance.