tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post5386068159192083476..comments2024-03-28T18:32:05.933-04:00Comments on bensozia: Confidence and MemoryJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01037215533094998996noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-31635832493048428212014-12-02T09:44:19.721-05:002014-12-02T09:44:19.721-05:00Eye-witness testimony, forensic "science,&quo...Eye-witness testimony, forensic "science," fingerprints, and single scientific studies are all under attack. Then there is paid expert testimony, and expert coroner testimony based on photographs of the body, a Michael Baden specialty. <br /><br />Makes you wonder.Shadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05353532874773316117noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-45926875009112259432014-12-02T07:55:36.638-05:002014-12-02T07:55:36.638-05:00Napoleon is one of the cases that worries me, beca...Napoleon is one of the cases that worries me, because I am sure that his great self-confidence was part of the secret of his success. Can a person with a realistic attitude ever achieve as much as a madman?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01037215533094998996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-42592475837041590382014-12-02T07:44:51.811-05:002014-12-02T07:44:51.811-05:00To be fair, what the authors say is that high conf...To be fair, what the authors say is that high confidence in an accurate memory is associated with greater accuracy, and high confidence in a false memory is associated with greater falseness. That is, high confidence in a memory is associated either with a very accurate or a very inaccurate memory. Uncertainty is associated with memories that are somewhat accurate, or somewhat inaccurate.<br /><br />By this logic, Paul Krugman could either be very right, or very wrong.<br /><br />Nice illustration: Napoleon was very right about Austerlitz, but very wrong about the 1812 Russian campaign, both occasions whose outcomes were clear and decisive, and in which he displayed great confidence. At the field of Borodino, he showed himself diffident, and Borodino, while a tactical victory for him, was pyrrhic and indecisive. Of course, for Borodino, I'm relying on my memory of a single witness' memory . . .Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08993570411881726772noreply@blogger.com