tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post2188465628093889868..comments2024-03-28T00:11:33.489-04:00Comments on bensozia: The Collapse of Civilizations or Rebellions against the Elite?Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01037215533094998996noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-66456324505499442692020-05-13T13:30:11.445-04:002020-05-13T13:30:11.445-04:00I wish I could find it again, maybe it was in the ...I wish I could find it again, maybe it was in the book: Dirt: the Erosion of Civilizations, but I recall reading a fascinating account of the fall of the Roman Empire, focused on what happened to agriculture. From there at the bottom, things were pretty OK. The big cities collapsed, of course, and people moved out to the countryside. The big slave-worked farm estates also collapsed, and regular people got to own and work their own patch of land again.<br /><br />Or perhaps I'm remembering it wrong?JustPeachyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06128069966879300756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-61060339150347342612020-05-13T12:11:24.274-04:002020-05-13T12:11:24.274-04:00I suppose one could say that the whole period from...I suppose one could say that the whole period from the dawn of civilization to the early Middle Ages represents a time of almost Darwinian struggle, in which the survivors were those civilizations that developed ideological systems that were capable of attracting loyalty/identification in a way that could survive upheavals, environmental, social, or otherwise. In this sense, the old clan/town gods and propitiation cults of the Bronze Age failed. But the Chinese were able to turn their old Bronze Age system into a system of ethics that experience proved was remarkably durable, and likewise Hinduism and Judaism were able to turn old cults of sacrifice and propitiation into a search for cosmic truth. Platonism, Hermeticism, Zoroastrianism, and others may represent gestures in the same direction from other sources that ended up getting swamped in the Abrahamic tide.<br /><br />Whatever happened to the Bronze Age Near Eastern empires, these later systems were strong enough that lower/working class embitterment alone has rarely if ever succeeded in bringing them down. There needed to be some replacement ideology, and a ruling class ready to transform itself and/or be replaced in place, so to speak.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14456987412710878404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-57144092534865422212020-05-13T11:17:23.303-04:002020-05-13T11:17:23.303-04:00Factor in the rigidity that religion brings on top...Factor in the rigidity that religion brings on top of the elitism that comes with an unequal society. I think of the French Revolution and the Egalitarian movement. <br />Even low level disease can foment unrest. I think of the frustration that raising many children with a low survival rate brings. Increase the death rate from unknown disease, blamed by religion, on the population not giving enough to the Religious Elite. <br />Perhaps gradually the workers left the cities and let the cities die. Robin Hood was a parable, warning the Elite and suggesting an alternative life for the lower classes.Susihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08491909280925749677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-17827354638167172932020-05-12T20:14:52.264-04:002020-05-12T20:14:52.264-04:00"But a strong government with popular support...<i>"But a strong government with popular support can survive such a challenge, as can a strong commercial scene or a thriving culture."</i><br /><br />Key word, "can" survive such a challenge. Not "will".<br /><br />Bronze Age societies were extremely vertically integrated. Their continued operation depended on top-down decision making by a very small number of elites, with the effect that the impact of every choice made was amplified drastically.<br /><br />In such a scenario, a strong government responding to a crisis in the wrong way could be utterly catastrophic. Just because a solution is <i>possible</i> doesn't mean the people in charge will manage to seize upon it before things go to pieces. Poor judgement, stubbornness, simple ignorance, logistical and communication failures... all kinds or mistakes could be made, and their costs could be much greater than you might initially imagine.<br /><br />And of course, it doesn't help that a lot of the systems of thought we take for granted today simply wouldn't have existed back then. We know so much more about how the world works, and can display so much better judgement, and yet even we still make boneheaded mistakes that cost us dearly.<br /><br />How much more prone to costly mistakes must superstitious and deeply conservative bronze age leaders have been? How much less well equipped must they have been to judge the proper course of action in the face of something like a decades long drought, or unexpected economic destabilization? How much harder must it be to manage an economy that hasn't yet invented minted currency, and is still operating on a goods driven barter and tax system?<br /><br />Many challenges that would be considered eminently survivable to us today might have been utterly insurmountable obstacle to bronze age societies.G. Verlorennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-16839257365918374962020-05-12T13:16:07.278-04:002020-05-12T13:16:07.278-04:00As for the source of the Nile, yes, rain, but rain...As for the source of the Nile, yes, rain, but rain in central Africa, which has nothing to do with the rain in Syria. So far as I know there is no data at all to suggest a drought there, so no reason to think the Nile would have been low, and so far as I know no complaints in Egypt about famine.<br /><br />Sure, under the right circumstances a famine might have all sorts of political effects. But a strong government with popular support can survive such a challenge, as can a strong commercial scene or a thriving culture. Consider that because of the Little Ice Age, the amount of arable land in Scotland fell by 20% over the course of the 1600s. But Scotland in the 1700s was thriving like never before.<br /><br />So far as i can see, only the most total environmental disasters (e.g., the drying of the Sahara or the Tarim Basin) dooms a well-functioning society and state. States can and do respond to crises.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01037215533094998996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-48770304378816083602020-05-12T13:12:44.298-04:002020-05-12T13:12:44.298-04:00I would be less skeptical of this thesis if I coul...I would be less skeptical of this thesis if I could think of a single strong historical example of this kind of class-based civilizational overthrow. You get a turn to banditry and peasant rebellion as a trope in Chinese history, for example, but the movements always result in a more or less rapid reassertion of the elite cultural superstructure, not in a long-lasting anarchistic peasant utopia. The peasant movements can serve mainly as adjuncts to military/barbarian takeover, most clearly in the Ming-Qing transition. I would say that's the most that could be said for the Bagaudae of the 5th century in the west as well.<br /><br />Genesis is an arguably good, or at least suggestive, piece of evidence for peasant-level attitudes toward the city-based monarchies of the ancient Near East, and there the dominant desires seem to be to cling to and manipulate the urban lords as sources of sustenance, or to imitate them (consider the way famine-struck Abram and Sarah act out the same manipulation of a monarch twice, and then later, as least as I remember it, there's a passage that runs, "Now Abram had become a rich man. And there was famine in the land, and so and so son of such and such came to him, and said, 'Feed me, and I will serve you.'").<br /><br />Famously both the Incas and Aztecs were weakened by disaffection and division in the face of the Spanish, which indicates a fundamental inability to attract loyalty. But in both cases the disaffection was locally focused, rather than class-based, and led by the same sorts of lords who had led the empires the Spanish were attacking.<br /><br />The whiff of James Scott-esque (not to mention Khmer Rouge) fantasy in the thesis also leaves me doubting.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14456987412710878404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-68847779540667338642020-05-12T10:01:08.700-04:002020-05-12T10:01:08.700-04:002/2
"I can believe that famine contributed t...2/2<br /><br /><i>"I can believe that famine contributed to a crisis atmosphere, but I don't accept that food shortages alone led to all those changes."</i><br /><br />Well, let's take a moment to think through a possible scenario.<br /><br />A drought hits Mesopotamia, they have grain shortages, and at first they just buy surplus Egyptian grain. But prices are high, and they remain high as the drought continues. This puts continual strain on Mesopotamian economies. Yes, they can buy grain, but it's costing them more and more. It's ultimately unsustainable.<br /><br />Meanwhile, grain prices in Egypt are also high, and stay high. Sure, they're making a profit in trade, but where is that money going? Not to the common people, who are stuck paying high prices for grain for years and years. It might be good for the economy overall, but it's still creating a relative imbalance of resources that may have profound effects down the road. Also, profits may be nice, but they come at the cost of giving up grain - overall supply is lower than it otherwise would be, and the buffer against possible shortage is smaller.<br /><br />Back to Mesopotamia, where people are struggling to afford high priced grain imports, and where the economy in general is struggling because they're having to export goods to Egypt at a value imbalance. The drought won't end. Things aren't getting better. The economy and the people are slowly bleeding dry. There's enough food to eat, but not at affordable enough prices. Unrest is brewing, and eventually it spills over into revolt.<br /><br />Once again to Egypt, where news of said revolts is having its own effect. Egyptian traders are becoming hestitant to deal with Mesopotamia. There are thieves and brigands on the roads; there are pirates on the seas; there are riots in the cities; there are soldiers massacring rebels and trying to restore order with a bronze fist. It's bad for business, even with the high prices they command for grain.<br /><br />What's more, as the drought has drawn on, the Egyptian economy has shifted to focus on producing more food for trade at the expense of other goods, because grain can be exported at a high price and other goods can be imported at a low price. Except now those exports and imports are becoming shaky.<br /><br />Something happens - a major collapse in Mesopotamia. Egyptian markets suddenly lose a major trade partner they've been reliant on. That's a problem.<br /><br />People abroad still need grain, but they can't afford to buy, so effective demand back in Egypt plummets, as do prices. Since Egypt has shifted toward growing extra grain, there is now a massive surplus of it, but they're struggling to sell it and it's next to worthless. Simultaneously, the imports of other goods they had been relying on crash to a halt, and the lack of local Egyptian production means there is now a critical shortage. Prices skyrocket.<br /><br />Now, even if Egypt turns to a different trading partner, they're still in the same situation Mesopotamia faced, just reversed - they're selling off their surplus grain at a loss to try to buy the other goods they need but can't produce enough of themselves. And there are still thieves on the roads, and marauding bands of rebels, and general unrest, and oh by the way, there are tons of refugees pouring in from Mesopotamia seeking food, safety, and stability.<br /><br />The economy can be corrected by reallocating production again, but that takes time, and in the meantime more and more stress is being piled on. Unrest starts to brew, and soon revolts will be inevitable...<br /><br />And absolutely nothing happened to cause all this except regional drought and a shortage of grain in Syria and Palestine.<br /><br />Knock on effects can be devastating, particularly when you have a rigid system that can't quickly adapt to changes. It's like a tree in a heavy wind, or trying to correct a skid on ice - if you can't adapt to changing stresses quickly, or if you accidentally overcorrect with massive inertia, it leads to catastrophe.G. Verlorennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-71009159666662612612020-05-12T09:47:01.903-04:002020-05-12T09:47:01.903-04:001/2
It does seem like the rains failed for years ...1/2<br /><br /><i>It does seem like the rains failed for years in Syria and Palestine, but the crisis also profoundly affected Egypt, which depends on the Nile rather than the rain and where there was not food shortage at all.</i><br /><br />...the Nile's water come from rain, no?<br /><br />It rains upstream, flows downhill, collects into streams and tributaries that feed into the river, and eventually flows thousands of miles downstream. If there's less rain upstream to feed into the river, the river shrinks, the water level drops, flooding is less frequent and less extensive...<br /><br />Now, obviously, if there wasn't also drought in East Africa at this time, the Nile would have remained unaffected by the drought further north. But that's not the same thing as the Nile not depending on rain.<br /><br /><i>"How, exactly, did a famine in Palestine weaken the government of Egypt, which suddenly found its major export (grain) in great demand across the region?"</i><br /><br />High demand means nothing if your potential customers can't pay. We have more than enough houses and apartments sitting around unoccupied in America to shelter all of our homeless if we wanted to, but obviously that doesn't happen.<br /><br />If your major trading partners are all undergoing societal collapse, it doesn't matter how much grain you have, unless you're willing to give it away for free.G. Verlorennoreply@blogger.com