tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post8229974084193524202..comments2024-03-28T18:32:05.933-04:00Comments on bensozia: American Soldier Killed in Yemen; Why?Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01037215533094998996noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-66141329264439175712017-01-30T16:18:13.624-05:002017-01-30T16:18:13.624-05:00These sorts of issues get very murky, very quickly...These sorts of issues get very murky, very quickly.<br /><br />People make entire careers devoting their whole lives to understanding these intensely complicated situations, and even they can't really predict what's going to happen. I therefor try to withold judgement, because there's just so much I don't know.G. Verlorennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-57347337761754047032017-01-30T14:09:03.774-05:002017-01-30T14:09:03.774-05:00It is easy for me to say, but I think there may be...It is easy for me to say, but I think there may be something to be said for letting them have their war. Mainly, I don't think there's any policy we can realistically adopt that will reliably short-circuit this war. And most policy options might end by making things worse. The hope would probably be for an eventual armed truce.<br /><br />I think we also probably have to continue taking out ISIS and Qaeda types. I think this kind of action probably doesn't much affect the likelihood of general war or peace in Yemen either way.<br /><br />The only open question is our support of Saudi Arabia. As I've said before, I think our support of them in Yemen is a kind of consolation prize to the Saudis for the nuclear deal with Iran and for our not preventing an Iranian success in propping up Bashar al-Assad. To the Saudis, all these issues are linked.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08993570411881726772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-505960610894710522017-01-30T11:29:47.458-05:002017-01-30T11:29:47.458-05:00If everything you say is correct, which it may wel...If everything you say is correct, which it may well be, then what is our course of action? What hope is there that Yemen will ever be at peace again?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01037215533094998996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-26196338222868995392017-01-30T09:57:07.577-05:002017-01-30T09:57:07.577-05:00As usual, I would disagree with some of the langua...As usual, I would disagree with some of the language in your post. First, your argument is not so much against war or violence, as against American and American-sponsored war and violence. That would be fair enough in itself. But a withdrawal of American and Saudi interference is not in itself going to bring either Houthi victory or peace. For any side to win in Yemen is going to involve a lot of violence in itself. And, FWIW, I'm skeptical that the Houthis are actually strong enough to control the whole country--a more likely result would be an armed truce and partition--which, of course, may be the best we can hope for. But al-Qaeda and ISIS types can do very well in such circumstances (as in Afghanistan before 2001).<br /><br />Second, no, the war is not purely about Yemeni concerns. Nothing is ever so simple. Like it or not, Iran and Saudi see themselves as rivals for regional hegemony, and this rivalry is inextricable from their respective Shi'ite and Sunni identities, whether outsiders think those identities are important or not. My own reading seems to indicate the Iranians have probably given the Houthis some help--not nearly as much as the Saudis have done against them, but that's not going to matter to the way the Saudis are going to feel about it. The Saudis aren't going to give up their analysis of the situation, no matter how wrong an outsider thinks it is. (The basic issue is, you'd have to convince the Saudis that doing nothing to prevent a Shi'ite victory in Yemen is in their interest--and probably long term, there's nothing about a Houthi victory in Yemen that's going to threaten them. But there are going to be plenty of folks in the Saudi government who would be enraged by the idea of sitting and waiting, and will lose all respect for a ruler who adopts such a policy.)Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08993570411881726772noreply@blogger.com