tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post7601412324194309245..comments2024-03-28T18:32:05.933-04:00Comments on bensozia: Russia Withdraws from KhersonJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01037215533094998996noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-12751527342080403602022-11-15T13:51:36.979-05:002022-11-15T13:51:36.979-05:00Though there is also probability this is just an a...Though there is also probability this is just an accident, accidental ignition on corn dust which destroyed a tractor. Let's hope for the latter. The Polish twitter is in rather military mood right now.szopenohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12096688483881484656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-91133319931090024082022-11-15T13:47:58.632-05:002022-11-15T13:47:58.632-05:00Huh. Something exploded in Poland, few km from bor...Huh. Something exploded in Poland, few km from border. Probably Russian missile. Two people killed.szopenohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12096688483881484656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-85725396552750509552022-11-12T12:01:12.350-05:002022-11-12T12:01:12.350-05:00I would add that there are plenty of examples wher...I would add that there are plenty of examples where the received wisdom (not necessarily wrong for being received) is that a general prolonged a war by failing to follow up a battlefield victory, when a vigorous pursuit could have ended it (most famous is McClellan after Antietam, recently cited by John). But by the same token, there are numerous historical examples of defeat snatched from the jaws of victory by trying to exploit a battlefield victory too much, and sending one's troops out too far too fast (consider MacArthur at the Yalu).<br /><br />My impression is that the terrain in that part of the Black Sea coast is pretty marshy, and not good for the offense. But I'm personally pretty risk-averse, so maybe I'm just rationalizing my own inclinations.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14456987412710878404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-65202687886345006502022-11-12T11:47:38.438-05:002022-11-12T11:47:38.438-05:00@Verloren
I actually like the game of trading quo...@Verloren<br /><br />I actually like the game of trading quotes from bygone ages. That said, I agree such quotes are not absolutely probative, because you can always find counter-examples. My personal favorite, where the lesson is quite different from Napoleon's and Forrest's, comes from the Renaissance Italian, Marshal Trivulzio. Asked by Louis XII what was needed to conquer Italy, the Marshal answered, "Money, more money, money all the time." (The original French seems to be, “Pour soutenir la guerre, trois choses sont nécessaires: de l'argent, de l'argent, et encore de l'argent”; I'm not sure where I read that English version, but I like the rendering.)<br /><br />There's a perennial debate about whether war is a contest of masculinity and testosterone, and best won by boldness, or whether it is more a contest of resources best played with caution and sheer, dumb endurance. The problem is that, as Machiavelli admitted, one's answer to this depends very strongly on personal taste. In fact, of course, probably the best thing is possess both the preponderance of resources and a bit of boldness at the right time (e. g., Sherman's March to the Sea).<br /><br />I think there's probably room for many different ways to analyze what's best for Ukraine at this moment. Loss of 20,000 of their better troops might have really shattered the Russians and made for a major, quick change in Russian politics; but there's always a risk in going until one's troops are exhausted and have outrun their supplies. And, as a friend of mine put it, "The Ukrainians got a mud weather roll."<br /><br />Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14456987412710878404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-79429438835963715252022-11-12T05:21:47.882-05:002022-11-12T05:21:47.882-05:00This was exciting news. Just few days before peopl...This was exciting news. Just few days before people were posting about Russians digging in, that withdrawal is psyop etc - and now paf! They are gone. I couldn't believe in that initially and I waited for official confirmation.<br /><br />As for offensive, soldiers have to get rest sometimes. And offensive over open terrain is rather risky.<br /><br />Heh, I have downloaded a podcast with discussion of chances of Ukrainian offensive, recorded BEFORE the news of Kherson capture. I wonder what analysts will be saying - it would be fun to compare their prediction with what happened just two days later :Dszopenohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12096688483881484656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-78039856237419701872022-11-11T17:50:23.769-05:002022-11-11T17:50:23.769-05:00Unless they're not taking many prisoners and i...Unless they're not taking many prisoners and instead raining fire on themAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-32605706446479228972022-11-11T16:35:41.366-05:002022-11-11T16:35:41.366-05:00I'm not sure quoting 19th century generals who...I'm not sure quoting 19th century generals who fought with muskets and cannons (both of whom ultimately LOST utterly) is quite the rhetorical blow you think it is, John.<br /><br /><i>Unless there is some kind of dramatic change in Moscow, this is going to be a long, long war.</i><br /><br />Russia is <i>already</i> in the midst of dramatic change. Their economy is in shambles and is only going to get weaker, faser; faith in the Kremlin is unraveling, with lots of infighting and uncertainty growing by the day; and - perhaps most important of all - Ukraine keeps pummeling the Russian ego and delivering embarrassment after embarrassment.<br /><br />That last point is incredibly important because once the Russian will to continue the war breaks, the end comes VERY swiftly. Once the populace can no longer cling to the lies of the Putin regime - once Russia is not just a laughingstock in the eyes of the world but also in the eyes of <i>Russians themselves</i> - the war ends within days, because at that point it no longer has any reason to continue. Ukraine appears to be seeking to break the Russian spirit, and they've been succeeding slowly but VERY surely at achieving that aim.G. Verlorennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-50689260824353412782022-11-11T11:01:58.843-05:002022-11-11T11:01:58.843-05:00Is there any scenario by which Ukraine could force...Is there any scenario by which Ukraine could force an end to the war with a military victory alone? Maybe I'm missing something, but it has always seemed to me that the decision of how long the war went on was going to lie in Moscow, and that that would be largely political. In that scheme, perhaps the Ukrainian government has decided that absolutely guaranteeing the preservation of their own military capacity is more important than any amount of smashing up the Russian army. (If you want a historical example of such a decision, consider Washington.)<br /><br />There's also been a lot of talk recently about Ukraine's rebuilding costs. Perhaps an intact town is more valuable to them than a lot of dead or captive Russians.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14456987412710878404noreply@blogger.com