tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post3351173419232554044..comments2024-03-28T18:32:05.933-04:00Comments on bensozia: Words and NumbersJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01037215533094998996noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8304928500646903522.post-82358283990833758702016-03-10T18:10:48.853-05:002016-03-10T18:10:48.853-05:00I would imagine the problem is that the same degre...I would imagine the problem is that the same degree of probability can have entirely different qualities of "seriousness" associated with it in different contexts. The ramifications of the undesired outcome themselves influence our notion of how serious a possibility is.<br /><br />If you're heading to the beach and the weather report says there's a 20% chance of rain, you don't really consider that to be too "serious" a probability to concern yourself with. It'll probably be fine, and if it isn't, oh well.<br /><br />But if you're defusing a bomb and you're told that cutting a certain wire has a 20% chance of detonating the device instantly, that exact same chance of failure is treated as a much more deathly serious risk, because the consequences of failure are themselves so much greater.<br /><br />When life and death are on the line, smaller percentages end up being assigned much greater value than otherwise. Fifty-fifty odds are actually pretty deceny when you're betting on a hand of poker among friends, but absolutely terrifying when you're considering survival rates for major surgery, or the likelihood of the outbreak of war.G. Verlorennoreply@blogger.com